The citizens of the Republic of Ireland will go to the polls today and stage a new Irish revolution.
Fianna Fáil has been in power for 61 of the last 79 years. Now it is all but certain that the party which gloried in the boom years of the Celtic Tiger will be ousted.
If there was any money left to spend on furnishings, Enda Kenny of Fine Gael would be ordering new curtains for the Taoiseach’s office.
Ireland no longer serves as a vision of what Wales might look like if we became a nation of paper millionaires. But it is a possible example of how Welsh politics could be transformed in a time of crisis.
The lack of a traditional left-right divide in Irish politics is considered one reason why the slide towards economic disaster was neither spotted nor halted. A political culture dominated by the divisions of the civil war was not well-suited to the challenges of globalisation.
But the developing relationship between Fine Gael and the UK Conservatives has established the party firmly on the right of centre. A country whose modern quest for self-determination began with the 1916 proclamation of a socialist- inspired republic looks set to swing right in this moment of crisis.
There is head-scratching about whether the parties in Wales’ Assembly – which have spent decades fighting each other in UK elections – are suited to respond to devolved politics. Only a brave soul would predict how these beasts will evolve or what new creatures will emerge.
The upbeat nature of the last Welsh Labour conference and the lack of suspense about the May 5 election is rooted in the near-certainty First Minister Carwyn Jones will stay in post. The only immediate question is whether Plaid will join Labour in coalition.
Could Labour dominate 21st century devolved politics in Wales in the way Fianna Fáil has commanded the Dáil since independence?
The Assembly’s other parties have not made reform of the Welsh electoral system a top demand, although the 2004 Richard Commission recommended changes which would have brought new fluidity. Meanwhile, two Welsh- speaking, rugby-loving Labour leaders have built their party a public identity completely at ease in devolved Wales.
But Ireland has demonstrated that apparently staid political cultures can be transformed in times of crisis. As the Assembly matures, and its responsibility grows, voters will respond to parties with a vision and hunger to lead.
We can hope for a new era of both accountability and ambition. For each party, there is everything to play for and the challenge of changing a nation for good.
A Thursday column
Friday, February 25, 2011
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Slo-mo Revolutions
It is 1997 all over again for supporters of electoral reform. This is not because advocates of the Alternative Vote (AV) gyrate with the excitement that Labour enthusiasts felt as Tony Blair led them towards Downing Street.
Rather, they are like those who campaigned in 1997 for the modestly conceived Welsh Assembly in the hope that if we crossed one rubicon we might one day vote for something bolder – and on March 3 there is a good chance this will happen.
But even if there is a Yes vote, Welsh AMs will have far less freedom to make laws than their counterparts in Northern Ireland and Scotland; those who want a truly federal Britain face decades of more campaigning.
Daily politics may be dominated by the 24-hour news cycle and the near-annual cycle of council, regional and national elections, but anyone who wants to achieve momentous change has to play a very long game.
The decision of Nick Clegg to take the Liberal Democrats into a coalition with the Conservatives last year with the promise of a referendum on AV was a rejection of dreams of a “big bang” moment of constitutional change. Many who cherish the Single Transferable Vote (STV) as the best electoral method will try to muster enthusiasm for AV and urge their children to continue the battle for a truly proportional election system.
Last May, days after the election, the Electoral Reform Society admitted AV “would prove a very modest reform”. The group calculated AV would have given Labour 25 seats (-1), the Conservatives six (-2), the Lib Dems six (+3) and Plaid would have held steady on three.
In contrast, STV could have given Labour 16 and put the Conservatives and Lib Dems each on 10 and bumped Plaid up to four.
This type of radical change is as likely in the near future as it is that Wales will have a Parliament responsible for every aspect of the criminal justice system and tax-varying powers.
It is not impossible that UK politics will rediscover its appetite for sudden transformation. The Conservatives’ remodelling of the NHS in England goes well beyond tinkering and Aneurin Bevan’s post-war pioneering of social housing and the health service was little short of revolutionary.
The generation of future politicians who have cut their teeth in the student protests and seen the revolution of Tahrir Square may be less patient than today’s legislators.
But electoral reformers should draw comfort from Wales where dogged dreamers have achieved real cultural change by cementing the Assembly into national life. It was the odd pup in the devolution pack, but it has at last been embraced.
Slow-motion revolutions still count.
A Thursday column
Rather, they are like those who campaigned in 1997 for the modestly conceived Welsh Assembly in the hope that if we crossed one rubicon we might one day vote for something bolder – and on March 3 there is a good chance this will happen.
But even if there is a Yes vote, Welsh AMs will have far less freedom to make laws than their counterparts in Northern Ireland and Scotland; those who want a truly federal Britain face decades of more campaigning.
Daily politics may be dominated by the 24-hour news cycle and the near-annual cycle of council, regional and national elections, but anyone who wants to achieve momentous change has to play a very long game.
The decision of Nick Clegg to take the Liberal Democrats into a coalition with the Conservatives last year with the promise of a referendum on AV was a rejection of dreams of a “big bang” moment of constitutional change. Many who cherish the Single Transferable Vote (STV) as the best electoral method will try to muster enthusiasm for AV and urge their children to continue the battle for a truly proportional election system.
Last May, days after the election, the Electoral Reform Society admitted AV “would prove a very modest reform”. The group calculated AV would have given Labour 25 seats (-1), the Conservatives six (-2), the Lib Dems six (+3) and Plaid would have held steady on three.
In contrast, STV could have given Labour 16 and put the Conservatives and Lib Dems each on 10 and bumped Plaid up to four.
This type of radical change is as likely in the near future as it is that Wales will have a Parliament responsible for every aspect of the criminal justice system and tax-varying powers.
It is not impossible that UK politics will rediscover its appetite for sudden transformation. The Conservatives’ remodelling of the NHS in England goes well beyond tinkering and Aneurin Bevan’s post-war pioneering of social housing and the health service was little short of revolutionary.
The generation of future politicians who have cut their teeth in the student protests and seen the revolution of Tahrir Square may be less patient than today’s legislators.
But electoral reformers should draw comfort from Wales where dogged dreamers have achieved real cultural change by cementing the Assembly into national life. It was the odd pup in the devolution pack, but it has at last been embraced.
Slow-motion revolutions still count.
A Thursday column
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Bluer-sky Thinking
The Conservative party’s faith in pragmatism has allowed it to endure as one the preeminent election-winning forces in western democracy.
It has adapted to universal suffrage, the rise of the middle classes and the loss of empire, and is now in the process of working out how to flourish in a devolved Britain.
The party opposed the creation of the National Assembly but fierce opponents of devolution found a political home in Cardiff Bay. Nick Bourne came to national prominence as a No campaigner in the 1997 referendum yet he is now the longest-serving party leader in the Assembly and an advocate for the institution gaining full law-making powers.
This is one more example of the Conservatives’ Darwinian instinct to adapt and survive allowing the party to thrive in a new environment.
The 13-strong Tory group has also benefited from the proportional voting system in the Assembly. The Tories finished second in Wales in 1997 and 2001 elections yet failed to send a single MP to Westminster; devolution has given the party the resources, the exposure and a need to develop a distinct Welsh identity.
But the Conservatives do not want to exist as a natural party of opposition. Even the least ambitious AM will tire of being weekly out-voted in the Senedd.
The party has reached a fascinating moment in its far-from-finished journey of evolution in Wales. If there is a Yes vote in the March referendum and a Labour-led Assembly Government returns in May with a team of ministers who have new freedom to make laws, pressure will intensify on the Tories to chart their route to power.
The grassroots may have little instinctive love for devolution but a party that won 26.1% of the vote last May will not tolerate a future in which the Labour leader is the de facto First Minister.
However, there are close to zero signs of a Conservative-Lib Dem alliance commanding a majority in the Assembly in the near-future, and Plaid Cymru’s left-wing identity has become more pronounced since 2007.
In such unpromising circumstances, Conservatives who want to challenge Labour’s hegemonic position may become quietly convinced that the Assembly needs an even more representative election system in which 40 of the 60 seats are no longer determined by first-past-the-post.
The 2004 Richard Commission called for an 80 member Assembly based on the Single Transferable Vote – and many icons of the Welsh rallied to lobby for this through Tomorrow’s Wales.
A gear change is required for Conservatives to shift from adapting to reform to driving it forward, but the party of Disraeli will not want to be stuck in a rut.
A Thursday column
It has adapted to universal suffrage, the rise of the middle classes and the loss of empire, and is now in the process of working out how to flourish in a devolved Britain.
The party opposed the creation of the National Assembly but fierce opponents of devolution found a political home in Cardiff Bay. Nick Bourne came to national prominence as a No campaigner in the 1997 referendum yet he is now the longest-serving party leader in the Assembly and an advocate for the institution gaining full law-making powers.
This is one more example of the Conservatives’ Darwinian instinct to adapt and survive allowing the party to thrive in a new environment.
The 13-strong Tory group has also benefited from the proportional voting system in the Assembly. The Tories finished second in Wales in 1997 and 2001 elections yet failed to send a single MP to Westminster; devolution has given the party the resources, the exposure and a need to develop a distinct Welsh identity.
But the Conservatives do not want to exist as a natural party of opposition. Even the least ambitious AM will tire of being weekly out-voted in the Senedd.
The party has reached a fascinating moment in its far-from-finished journey of evolution in Wales. If there is a Yes vote in the March referendum and a Labour-led Assembly Government returns in May with a team of ministers who have new freedom to make laws, pressure will intensify on the Tories to chart their route to power.
The grassroots may have little instinctive love for devolution but a party that won 26.1% of the vote last May will not tolerate a future in which the Labour leader is the de facto First Minister.
However, there are close to zero signs of a Conservative-Lib Dem alliance commanding a majority in the Assembly in the near-future, and Plaid Cymru’s left-wing identity has become more pronounced since 2007.
In such unpromising circumstances, Conservatives who want to challenge Labour’s hegemonic position may become quietly convinced that the Assembly needs an even more representative election system in which 40 of the 60 seats are no longer determined by first-past-the-post.
The 2004 Richard Commission called for an 80 member Assembly based on the Single Transferable Vote – and many icons of the Welsh rallied to lobby for this through Tomorrow’s Wales.
A gear change is required for Conservatives to shift from adapting to reform to driving it forward, but the party of Disraeli will not want to be stuck in a rut.
A Thursday column
Monday, February 07, 2011
Inspiring Revolution
When ex-President Bush watches the extraordinary pro-democracy protests in Egypt he may wish he had waited just a few months longer before publishing his presidential memoirs.
His father was at the helm as Communist dictatorships tumbled across Europe, and he must wonder if his strident calls for freedom in the Arab world – and his installation of fledgling democracies in Iraq and Afghanistan – helped inspire those who took the world by surprise when they took to the streets.
His 2005 inaugural speech set out a lofty vision for the spread of democracy: “Our country has accepted obligations that are difficult to fulfil, and would be dishonourable to abandon. Yet because we have acted in the great liberating tradition of this nation, tens of millions have achieved their freedom.
“And as hope kindles hope, millions more will find it. By our efforts, we have lit a fire as well – a fire in the minds of men. It warms those who feel its power, it burns those who fight its progress, and one day this untamed fire of freedom will reach the darkest corners of our world.”
US Democrats – many of whom would argue Bush’s Middle East policies were characterised by unmitigated disaster – can point to President Obama’s 2009 Cairo speech as a hymn to human rights delivered in an Islamic context with humility.
Did these words stir the hearts of the people of Tunisia and Egypt?
“I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed... Those are not just American ideas, they are human rights, and that is why we will support them everywhere.
“There is no straight line to realise this promise. But this much is clear: governments that protect these rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure.
“Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. America respects the right of all peaceful and law-abiding voices to be heard around the world, even if we disagree with them. And we will welcome all elected, peaceful governments – provided they govern with respect for all their people.”
Despots may attribute the agitation not to American leadership but to the dangerous cultivation of an educated middle class. This could encourage dictators to decide that enlightenment is an enemy of their rule.
With good reason, there are also worries about the monsters which could emerge in a power vacuum. Many Iranians hoped their 1979 revolution would lead to democracy, not theocracy.
But for this moment at least, even amidst the gunshots and stone-throwing, hopes of freedom soar as tyrants tremble.
A Thursday column
His father was at the helm as Communist dictatorships tumbled across Europe, and he must wonder if his strident calls for freedom in the Arab world – and his installation of fledgling democracies in Iraq and Afghanistan – helped inspire those who took the world by surprise when they took to the streets.
His 2005 inaugural speech set out a lofty vision for the spread of democracy: “Our country has accepted obligations that are difficult to fulfil, and would be dishonourable to abandon. Yet because we have acted in the great liberating tradition of this nation, tens of millions have achieved their freedom.
“And as hope kindles hope, millions more will find it. By our efforts, we have lit a fire as well – a fire in the minds of men. It warms those who feel its power, it burns those who fight its progress, and one day this untamed fire of freedom will reach the darkest corners of our world.”
US Democrats – many of whom would argue Bush’s Middle East policies were characterised by unmitigated disaster – can point to President Obama’s 2009 Cairo speech as a hymn to human rights delivered in an Islamic context with humility.
Did these words stir the hearts of the people of Tunisia and Egypt?
“I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed... Those are not just American ideas, they are human rights, and that is why we will support them everywhere.
“There is no straight line to realise this promise. But this much is clear: governments that protect these rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure.
“Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. America respects the right of all peaceful and law-abiding voices to be heard around the world, even if we disagree with them. And we will welcome all elected, peaceful governments – provided they govern with respect for all their people.”
Despots may attribute the agitation not to American leadership but to the dangerous cultivation of an educated middle class. This could encourage dictators to decide that enlightenment is an enemy of their rule.
With good reason, there are also worries about the monsters which could emerge in a power vacuum. Many Iranians hoped their 1979 revolution would lead to democracy, not theocracy.
But for this moment at least, even amidst the gunshots and stone-throwing, hopes of freedom soar as tyrants tremble.
A Thursday column
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