Thursday, March 31, 2011

Disenfranchised 16

Anyone who is aged 17 on May 5 will not get the chance to cast a vote in an Assembly election until he or she has turned 22.

The next Assembly will last half a decade – the extra year has been added to prevent a clash with the 2015 Westminster election.

Campaigns to lower the voting age struggle to generate wild excitement among most of the electorate. The polling station is one of the few places where you are unlikely to find a hoodie-clad youth with multiple piercings gyrating to the tinny cacophony buzzing out of a mobile phone.

But there are good reasons why we should consider opening the doors to the great Welsh youth and encouraging them to pick up a pencil, mark an X and share in the treasures of democracy.

A lot can happen between the ages of 17 and 22. Very many young people will go to university, some may well go to war, a fair number will bring children into the world, and a considerable proportion will start paying taxes – a handful might even buy a property.

Their peers in Austria and Brazil already get the chance to vote at 16. And when tuition fees is one of the most emotive subjects it is possible to discuss, it does seem incongruous you could enter and complete your journey through the higher education system without having the chance to influence who becomes the Assembly Government minister responsible for this policy.

Even if there is little chance that Westminster will lower the voting age for its elections, there is a strong case that the Assembly should blaze a trail.

As a legislature, not only does it have one of the best gender balances on the planet (though that may no longer be the case in a few weeks), it also has a commendable range of ages.

Plaid’s Bethan Jenkins entered the Assembly at the age of 25 and until yesterday she sat across from 71-year-old former Labour leader Rhodri Morgan. Each contributed with gusto and just as Mr Morgan did not limited his backbench campaigns to topics relating to pensioners, Ms Jenkins cannot be accused of focusing on “yoof” issues.

Similarly, we should not expect young people who are going through an education system where the concept of citizenship is stressed at every opportunity to vote for the party that promises subsidised roller blades.

Confirmation and baptismal classes have been part of Wales’ spiritual heritage for generations, and it could be a glory of a young democracy if we dispatched the best-prepared young people in the western world towards the ballot box to vote for a better future.

A Thursday column

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Leaders of the Free World

Just as every British monarch has brandished the title “Defender of the Faith” since the days of Henry VIII regardless of his or her spiritual disposition, each American president is bestowed with the honour “Leader of the Free World.”

But in recent days has this name tag been snatched from the lapel of President Obama?
The Democrat leader is being pilloried for not acting sooner to halt Colonel Gaddafi’s attempts to crush the Libyan rebellion.

Oliver North, of Iran-Contra fame, claims that France’s Nicolas Sarkozy is now the leader of the free world who forced the US to take action.

He said on Fox News, which is not known for its friendliness towards the sitting president: “I’m told that the message he delivered, very straightforward, was, ‘We’re going with you or without you.’”

Obama is also getting swiped from the Left. John Judis, a leading liberal commentator, wrote in the New Republic: “If the current coalition had intervened two weeks ago, even with a no-fly zone (which opponents of intervention were claiming would take weeks to impose), Gaddafi would probably be in Caracas by now, and many lives would have been spared.”

Quite a few Brits may be disgruntled at the idea of Sarkozy being crowned as the leader of free people everywhere. At the start of the month David Cameron was apparently slapped down by US Defence Secretary Robert Gates for “loose talk” about no-fly zones.

Likewise, US Democrats can argue that Obama has actually stayed as cool as a chilled courgette throughout this drama and cannily allowed others the UK and France to make the public case for action. By letting Europeans take the lead, he was able to secure the crucial support of Arab League and avoid vetoes at the UN.

If this is the case, it is the latest in a series of signs that Obama is a follower of the Ronald Reagan school of presidential politics.

The two men may represent radically different world-views, but the late Republican leader had a knack for winning landslides and achieving cultural change that even the most ardent Democrat can admire. On his desk he kept a plaque: “There is no limit to what a man can do or where he can go if he doesn't mind who gets the credit.”



But maybe this fast-changing drama also demonstrates that we are in what policy wonks call a “multipolar world.” There were moments when Cameron led the free world, and others when Sarkozy was running with the ball, and Obama is certainly a crucial member of the scrum. This is a long game and we are nowhere near half-time.

A Thursday column

Thursday, March 17, 2011

The Taxing Issue

First Minister Carwyn Jones stamped on any suggestion that the Assembly would gain tax-raising powers in the days leading up to the March 3 referendum on giving the institution new freedoms to make laws.

He again attempted to kick the notion into the longest available grass when he said another referendum would be needed before ministers in Cardiff Bay gained such a responsibility.

But the question of taxation is not going to go away. Politicians from across the spectrum are convinced the funding system for the Assembly needs to be overhauled – and this is almost certainly going to involve looking at taxes.

It is easy to see why anyone who believes Wales is underfunded through a crude formula will argue that a needs-based system is urgently required and that any suggestion that the Assembly should make up the shortfall by levying taxes on its citizens is punitive and unfair.

But somebody will have to talk about the taxation elephant sitting in the Senedd sooner or later. A funding system which directly links Welsh funding to English-driven expenditure will prove untenable as the priorities of Westminster and the Senedd diverge.

If a Labour-led Government is returned to the Assembly in May it is highly unlikely it will go on a mission to radically shrink the size of the state.

Similarly, there is no indication that the UK Government will seek to transform Britain into a Nordic-style social democracy, even once the public finances have recovered.

There could be pressure on the Assembly to embrace tax-varying powers by a Whitehall which has tired of demands for cash, but there may also be ambitious men and women in the Senedd who warm to the idea of seizing this lever of government.

They could come from the Left and make the case that Wales’ traditions of community solidarity means we are prepared to shoulder a greater share of taxation in return for better services. Or we could hear voices on the Right arguing that tax-cuts could help bring prosperity to parts of Wales that Objective One funding has failed to regenerate.

There is no guarantee that enthusiasm would be limited to the political class.
A poll conducted for the Western Mail last month found 54% of people wanted the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes; just 34% were opposed.

AMs are elected on the basis of how their party promises to spend cash – not on how they raise it. We may not see Budget & Business minister Jane Hutt standing with a Chancellor’s red briefcase in the coming Assembly term but such a day may be edging closer as Welsh democracy ferments.

A Thursday column

Thursday, March 10, 2011

The Return of Neil Kinnock

Wales may see a lot more of Neil Kinnock in the run-up to the National Assembly elections.

This is because the May 5 contest coincides with the referendum on the Alternative Vote and the Labour peer will head-up the campaign in Wales.

According to the Labour Yes campaign, 33 of Wales’ 40 MPs were elected without the backing of 50% of the voters.

Labour leader Ed Miliband is a supporter of AV but there are many figures in the party who strongly oppose a switch to this voting system – not least Margaret Beckett, David Blunkett and John Prescott.

Mr Kinnock’s powers as a campaigner should not be underestimated.

As a young, firebrand MP he fought for a No vote in the 1979 referendum with devastating effect. It will be fascinating to see if he can persuade people to vote Yes with equal success.

Anyone wanting to recall the bullish optimism he inspired in the party when he won the leadership should track down a copy of Robert “Fatherland” Harris’ 1984 biography The Making of Neil Kinnock.

His battle with diehard left-wingers for the soul of Labour was a desperate and passionate struggle. In winning this fight, he prevented the party sailing far out of the political mainstream; in losing the 1992 election he gave Mandelsonian modernisers the mandate they needed for the internal revolution which led to New Labour.

But had he beaten the Tories in either 1987 or 1992, it is possible that Britain would have been introduced to coalition politics long before David Cameron and Nick Clegg walked into the Downing St rose garden together.

Economists and political scientists can debate long into the night as to whether he would have been able to take Britain in the direction of a European social democracy. Would he have become stuck in industrial strife, or could the country have successfully modernised without embracing mass privatisation?

His interventions in Welsh politics have been rare in recent years. His endorsement of Huw Lewis in the last Welsh Labour leadership contest was a rare breaking of silence.

But when he looks at where the Assembly Government has taken Wales under Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones he may see something of the Britain he hoped to forge. The “red water” agenda with its commitment to universal benefits stands in deepening contrast with English policies.

But social democrats who see such reforms pushed forward in the devolved regions must also wonder whether a Welsh or Scottish MP will ever again lead the UK. During the course of this latest referendum campaign we may discover if he has cultivated a federal vision for Britain.

A Thursday column

Thursday, March 03, 2011

Leaving the Lowlands

It was on this day in 1985 that National Union of Mineworkers delegates voted by a margin of seven to abandon the strike that had brought scenes of strife and days of hardship to families across Wales and Britain.

Less than three decades on, the physical and mental scars from this time have not healed. There is still intense debate about the tactics of the strikers and the actions of the UK Government.

In an age of energy scarcity when corporations are rushing to develop “clean coal,” it is by no means certain Wales’ days of mining are gone for good. But the era of communities in which all men could be guaranteed skilled and well-paid employment in the same enterprise are finished.

Even when the mining equipment was removed and the sites were “landscaped,” the sense remained that these were battlefields where a war was lost. Regardless of whether the real fight was against a particular Government or the forces of globalisation, the casualties show up in economic, educational and health statistics.

The ache in post-industrial Wales mirrored the sense of loss in communities where the Welsh language seemed to melting away in the harsh light of modernity. Just as the absence of employment had robbed thousands of proud ironworkers and miners of a crucial aspect of their identity, the vanishing of Welsh as a language in which to live, love and work was a cause for fear and sorrow.

The creation of the Assembly did not bring instant healing – how could it? Its 60 members could not press a button in the debating chamber and give schoolchildren growing up in poverty the confidence they could gain the highest grades; nor could they provide their parents with the capital and the self-belief to start businesses that could out-smart Google.

We may live in an age which demands instant gratification but generational change takes, well, generations.

Today’s referendum to give the Assembly fuller law-making “powers” will not bestow AMs with the ability to make us all multilingual, nor will they be able to elevate our GDP with the turn of a dial.

But this is no longer a nation defined by the ruins of a vanished past. The sweeping landmarks of Cardiff Bay comprise one of the world’s most distinctive waterfront views and the rediscovery of Welsh democracy has raised up an army of men and women committed to striving to improve the health, education and prosperity of this nation.

The Welsh spirit is not broken and though the warriors are in the lowlands they can see the path which leads up the mountain. Above all, a love of country has charged once-grey skies with great flashes of hope.




A Thursday column