Van Peebles Land

The Kate Middleton President

2012-02-09T17:03:00.002Z

US Republican party strategists must watch the Duchess of Cambridge performing her royal duties and gasp in wonder – and flash with jealousy.

Kate Middleton was not a champion athlete, a well-known philanthropist or a Nobel-nominated biomedical engineer before being clutched to the heart of the British monarchy.

But she has strolled onto the world stage with the ease with which her contemporaries might walk into a Chelsea cafe.

Seemingly fazed neither by rapturous crowds of the proletariat nor the handshakes of the mighty, she plays the role of a future Queen with such pitch-perfect poise it is as if she was summoned from central casting.

The United States may be the home of Hollywood but the Republican party has had no such joy in finding someone to audition for the role of president.

Right-leaning voters remember too clearly the genuine movie-star charisma of Ronald Reagan and long for someone who could articulate conservative values with his winsome panache.

Left-inclined voters measure President Obama’s performance against the conviction-driven accomplishments of Martin Sheen’s fictional White House-dweller in the much missed West Wing.

It is Republicans who have the greater dilemma. Obama may have disappointed zealots but he can still perform with panache when behind a podium and he will turn on the rhetorical magic when he hits the campaign trail later this year.

Republicans are still deeply divided about their casting choice. There was an expectation that rank and file activists would grudgingly back Mitt Romney – a man who has prepared for the nomination by making many millions of dollars, governing a state and allegedly rescuing the 2002 Olympics.

He seemed able to stub out periodic surges in support for rival Newt Gingrich, a rowdy former congressional Speaker who wants to build a base on the moon.

But Rick Santorum, a diehard social conservative has just won caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota, and a primary in Missouri.

One might have thought Romney’s success as a Republican in the famously liberal state of Massachusetts would be seen as a shining asset. After all, recent elections have gone down to the proverbial wire in swing states.

But the party is thrashing around, looking for someone with plutonium powers of charisma and an ideology-driven vision so vast and pure it would make an Alpine lake look like a toxic puddle. The perfect candidate is no longer the most electable.

In such a climate, will a new non-aligned candidate decide to leap forward? If Kate Middleton was born to be a princess, surely there is someone convinced he or she is born to run?

A Thursday Column.

You just can't Lego of Star Wars

2012-02-05T09:43:00.002Z

Embracing the Left

2012-02-02T16:46:00.001Z

The election of Leanne Wood as Plaid Cymru leader is a real possibility which would cement the party’s position on the left.

She has far more nominations from branches and constituency parties than her rivals and her backers include Plaid heavyweights Dafydd Iwan and Adam Price.

Her election would signal that the party’s faith in socialist solutions in the 21st century goes well beyond a nodding commitment to intellectual theory. Instead, she would be expected to put forward bold proposals for how government, the economy and communities can interact in a new era of uncertainty.

The contrast with Diane Abbott’s bid for the Labour leadership is striking. There was no expectation she would beat either of the Miliband brothers and her presence was seen as a way of ensuring a left-wing perspective was included in party debates.

But bookies are offering identical odds for Ms Wood and former rural affairs minister Elin Jones. The apparent surge in support for Ms Wood shows the party’s membership – up 23% in four months – is not afraid to frighten horses.

Plaid supporters will hope that the election of Ms Wood would help the party win traditional Labour voters in the Valleys. But how will economically and socially conservative Welsh-speakers and supporters of independence react if the party is positioned to the left of Welsh Labour? Will people who admired Ms Jones’ readiness to cull badgers recoil at Ms Wood’s republicanism?

In 1982 a band of Plaid supporters formed the Hydro group to ensure the party’s commitment to self-government for Wales was not diluted by “left-wing ideological dogma”. Now that Plaid is fighting to lead the Welsh Government, will non-socialists conclude there is a need for a nationalist party committed to deregulation and a lessening of Wales’ economic reliance on the public sector?

Just as the SNP, which is led by a former RBS economist, has hoovered up the votes of former Tory supporters, such a group could aggressively court Welsh Conservative backers.

It is just as likely that Tories in Wales will step up efforts to win over right-leaning Plaid supporters.

All parties are coalitions and the goal of self-government has united Plaid members for generations. If today’s explicit focus on outright independence is shared by the grassroots the Welsh nationalist family may continue to share one home.

It is striking how on a personal level she is liked and admired by many well to her right. If Ms Wood wins and can hold her party together while taking votes from both Labour and the Conservatives she will demonstrate political brilliance on a par with Alex Salmond.

A Thursday Column.

Where's the Welsh Safety Valve?

2012-01-26T00:01:00.000Z

When David Cameron heard this week that the House of Lords had just defeated his Government’s plans for a £26,000-a-year household benefit cap he might have felt a flash of envy at the law-making freedom enjoyed in the National Assembly and the Scottish Parliament.

The Welsh Government does not have to worry about a troublesome second chamber. But if checks and balances are considered essential at Westminster to prevent the executive whipping through hasty and dangerous legislation, why are such safeguards not in place in Cardiff, not to mention Edinburgh or Belfast?

Many politicians will tell you that (a) people do not want to pay for more politicians and (b) the Assembly has a splendid record of performing “pre-legislative scrutiny” before drafting laws.

Especially in the wake of last year’s referendum on full law-making powers for the Assembly, these two arguments are increasingly unsatisfactory.

On the first point, there is no need to build a great Gothic House of Lords in Cardiff Bay.

There are other ways of enhancing scrutiny. If groups of citizens can be brought together in juries to rule on murder cases and high crimes why should they not be able to debate and amend individual pieces of legislation?

A far more controversial suggestion would be that if Welsh MPs (soon to be cut from 40 to 30) are banned from touching English legislation in Westminster they could serve their electorate in Wales by performing the function of a second chamber for the Assembly.

The argument the Assembly does not need such a safety valve because it performs a higher standard of scrutiny before producing legislation is troubling if not patronising. Essentially, it is saying that Welsh people should trust AMs to consult and think about things in more detail than MPs.

A campaigner against plans for presumed consent on organ donation recently described in astonishment how the soon-to-close consultation does not ask the public whether they want the policy to go ahead or not. Instead, there are questions such as: “Do you agree discussions between clinicians and family in the event of an individual’s death, will identify and safeguard those who lack capacity?”

The situation is made more urgent in Wales because there is no equivalent of the restless army of backbenchers that keeps the coalition on its toes. Of the 30 Labour AMs, eight are in the cabinet, three are deputy ministers one is a presiding officer, and another is a chief whip.

The 2004 Richard Commission called for 20 more AMs and the new power and prominence of the Assembly means the case for reform should not be ignored.

A Thursday Column.

Republicans and Dennis Skinner

2012-01-19T09:44:00.003Z

Republican party grassroots voters have spent the past four years looking for a candidate who shares their passions and predilections and instead opted to pick a winner.

Instead of embracing a zealot who has an unflinching commitment to the core tenets of the conservative creed it appears they have decided to back the contender with the best chances of evicting Barack Obama.

Mitt Romney does not have the rock-solid social conservative credentials of Rick Santorum or the fervour for right-of-centre policy innovations which lights up the eyes of Newt Gingrich.

But the latest poll suggests he would beat Obama by two points, in contrast with Santorum who would lose by 11 and Gingrich who would be thrashed by 12.

Romney now enjoys an 11-point lead over his Republican rivals in the conservative bastion of South Carolina and one poll puts him at +26 in Florida. Unless Romney is photographed shooting kittens while wearing JFK’s sunglasses with a copy of Das Kapital in his back-pocket it looks like the nomination is his.

Party supporters reckon what Romney lacks in conservative credentials he makes up for in electability. He is the man most likely to give Obama sleepless nights.

This strategy of picking the candidate best placed to frighten your enemy is one which left-wing Labour stalwart Dennis Skinner would applaud.

The “Beast of Bolsover” backed the elder Miliband brother, David, in 2010 over Ed, arguing: “The big question is who are the Tories afraid of? Who is the best candidate to stand up against Cameron at the despatch box?”

Labour’s electoral college placed Ed Miliband at the helm of the party. In the Brown Government he was a pugnacious performer in television interviews and his readiness to take on his brother for the leadership cemented his reputation as a conviction politician willing to fight anyone in the battle of ideas.

But does he pass the test of performing better than the alternative leaders opposite the prime minister at noon on a Wednesday? This strange fusion of Oxford Union theatrics and celebrity cage-fighting is not where he thrives.

His left-wing vision excited his party’s electoral college just as Republicans were enamoured of the right-wing rhetoric of Herman Cain, Gingrich and a jalopy-full of unlikely presidential aspirants.

The Labour leader is no clown but he urgently needs to show there is a serious chance of him winning the keys to No 10 in 2015. Otherwise, the party will look around for a left-of-centre answer to Romney; someone who may not set their pulses racing but could convince the voters of Middle England to go red.

A Thursday Column.

The Vanishing Kingdom

2012-01-19T09:43:00.001Z

It is highly unlikely David Cameron wants to go down in history as the answer to the pub quiz question: “Who was the last prime minister of the United Kingdom?”

But it now seems certain that a referendum will be held on Scottish independence in the lifetime of this parliament. Polls show a majority don’t plan to vote Yes but if Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond pitches the debate as a battle between meddling Westminster unionists and a proud party of government in Scotland he could pull off the coup of his career.

Scotland’s exit would mean a new nation state of England and Wales (plus Northern Ireland) would be born. The Scots would not be the only people to wake up in a brand new political reality.

A sense of precarious fragility and imminent change haunts Western states. American pundits compare their creaking superpower to the Ottoman empire which is now more famous for the speed at which it vanished than its erstwhile splendour.

A favourite Christmas book among politicos was Norman Davies’ Vanished Kingdoms, which recounts how many of Europe’s greatest countries disappeared from the map.

He describes how the Rzeczpospolita of Poland-Lithuania was once the “the largest state in Europe” but “in little more than two decades at the end of the eighteenth century, [it] was destroyed so comprehensively that few people today have even heard of it.”

He also mentions the extinguishing of the Republic of Venice, the Holy Roman Empire and the Soviet Union.

Utopian ambition was once focused on the European Union. Contrast the pessimism in this season of crisis summits with the way US conservative guru Samuel Huntington described the prospects for integration back in 1988: “The European Community, if it were to become politically cohesive, would have the population, resources, economic wealth, technology and actual and potential military strength to be the preeminent power of the 21st century.

“Japan, the United States and the Soviet Union have specialised respectively in investment, consumption and arms. Europe balances all three.” In British politics, at least, the concept of such a superstate has failed to inspire.

Despite the battering of the recession, Western states remain lands where citizens enjoy unprecedented access to advanced healthcare, education and technology. But debates are dogged by a sense past achievements are unsustainable.

The language of hope and idealism is common in nationalist politics – something former Welsh Secretary John Redwood senses is stirring among English Tories – but the prime minister must kindle an excitement about a future UK if this fragile alliance is to survive.

A Thursday Column.

The Fire and Her City

2012-01-12T23:09:00.001Z

The Advent Gates

2012-01-12T23:05:00.001Z

The Horizon of the Muse

2012-01-08T18:27:00.001Z

Winning for What?

2012-01-05T00:01:00.000Z

The contrast between the Welsh Conservative and Plaid Cymru leadership elections is striking.

The largely affable and low-key Tory race between Nick Ramsay and the eventual winner, Andrew RT Davies, did not result in wild shifts in policy. The Conservatives seem delighted to have overtaken Plaid to become the second group in the Senedd and are confident they can cement their position as a major player in devolved politics.

Meanwhile, Plaid faces a choice of four potential leaders but also great questions about the party’s purpose, goals and electoral strategy.

Essentially, do Plaid members want (a) a seat-winner who will take the party back into government at the earliest possible date; (b) somebody who will use the position to win the battle of ideas and push all the parties to support greater autonomy for Wales as part of the long-term goal of securing support for independence?

Since 1999, Plaid has failed to end Labour’s position as the largest party in the Assembly. It also passed up the opportunity to lead a potentially unstable non-Labour coalition in 2007.

However, it has arguably enjoyed much greater success pursuing option B.
The overwhelming cross-party support in the Assembly for last year’s referendum and bilingualism testify to the culture change which has taken place in Welsh politics.

Traditionally, parties in UK politics seek power the way an athlete seeks a gold medal and regard opposition as a wretched experience. New Labour under Tony Blair was absolutely focused on getting through the door of No 10, not on liberalising the Conservative party.

But Plaid is not a traditional UK party. It would be a success for Plaid if its Senedd rivals embraced fiscal independence for Wales and gradually became independent from the UK parties.

For many Plaid supporters, seeing their own AMs serve as ministers of the crown will be less important than ensuring that more decisions are made in Wales and that the renaissance in the use of Welsh strengthens.

However, it would be a dangerous and false dichotomy for Plaid to think electoral success and cultural power are not inextricably linked. It was in response to Plaid’s electoral potency that parties moved their tanks onto its lawn.

The SNP are now in a position to stage a referendum on Scottish independence because it presented itself as a competent custodian of the economy and guardian of public services. Its electoral success was not rooted in a surge of nationalist idealism among the Scots but the success of Alex Salmond and his colleagues in championing unromantic bread and butter policies.

If Plaid wants to shape tomorrow’s Wales it needs to win a nation’s trust today.

A Thursday Column.

Cinematic Review of 2011

2012-01-04T20:08:00.007Z

Not all the films below were released in 2011. Some are decades old. But this is the order in which I saw them.

The King's Speech ****

This imagining of a real-life drama of a stammering king contains much to enjoy. Helena Bonham-Carter's performance elevates the film from being a charming tea-time Laura Ashley drama into a fascinating portrayal of a marriage. It's the moments when it touches on universal themes that the film edges towards greatness.

Nixon in China *****

Not strictly a film, but I watched this live telecast of the John Adams opera in a Cardiff cinema and loved it. The Nixon White House was not Aaron Sorkin's West Wing and Mao's China is a harsh place, but the politics and the spectacle are interspersed with glimpses of humanity on the (world) stage.

Greenberg ****

Ben Stiller and Noah Baumbach pen a love letter to LA in a movie which finds tenderness in the lives of disappointed, often caustic, sometimes selfish souls adrift in the sprawl.

Winter's Bone ***

I watched this portrayal of criminality and deprivation in rural America seen through the eyes of a brave young woman struggling to provide for her siblings while on a train going through rural Wales. The hardship experienced of the communities on the screen mirrored the deprivation glimpsed outside the window. It's a harrowing picture of a neglected world.

Whatever Works **1/2

Woody Allen and Larry David are two of my heroes. This Woody-directed David-starring movie, alas, fails to soar.

The Fighter *****

This is a gold-standard masterpiece by David O Russell. It's a film with an opening sequence shot with such bravura you know this is going to be a joyous cinematic ride. Not since Magnolia have I seen a film which makes the viewer as much a part of the community on screen. You are cheering wildly in the final fight of this boxing epic not because Mark Wahlberg might not win but because you know what a loss will mean in the lives of the people who have come to care about. It also portrays personal redemption with neither cynicism nor romance.

Moon *****

The magic of science-fiction is revived in this extraordinary tale of a man on a mining base who may not be alone. It would be schlockly to describe it as Star Trek imagined by Beckett but if such a concept appeals to you then you will find much to be thrilled by.

The Social Network *****

When word spread that Aaron Sorkin was doing a movie about Facebook there were a few half-groans. Surely the greatest chronicler of democracy of our times was turning to subject matter lacking suitable greatness? How wrong we were. Together with David Fincher he tells a spellbinding story of how computing genius is found in personalities which are still learning to navigate the adult world. Like Sorkin's best work, it takes an exciting story and uses it to explore ancient virtues such as trust, love and friendship.

Pierrepoint ***

The story Britain's last hangman captures the sweeping transformation of social attitudes which followed World War II. Timothy Spall and Juliet Stevenson deliver fine performances but this is grim fare.

Cave of Forgotten Dreams ****

Werner Herzog took 3D cameras into a cave that contains paintings that had been hidden for tens of thousands of years. Choral music and philosophising abound, and the closing minutes are delightfully offbeat.

Little White Lies *****

A bunch of thirtysomething friends choose not to postpone their summer holiday when one of their number is knocked off his motorcycle and left in a coma. This is France's answer to the American classic The Big Chill and Kenneth Branagh's Peter's Friends. It's vibrant, often fun, and frank about early ageing and unrequited love. As with Greenberg, it acknowledges an unsettling selfishness but it also celebrates the joy of lasting friendship with unbridled and quite Gallic emotion.

Pina ****

Wim Wenders gives modern ballet the 3D treatment. Some of it is wonderful. All of it is eye-opening.

Howl ***1/2

This exploration of the events surrounding Allen Ginsberg's obscenity trial pulls in several directions but features a brilliant animation to accompany his eponymous poem. Really, there's an HBO box-set to be made dramatising the story of the Beats.

The Tree of Life ****1/2

Terrence Mallick draws wonderful performances out of Brad Pitt and his screen family as he unapologetically drills into the minutiae of family life and juxtaposes this with images of galaxies and explorations of the greatest spiritual themes.

Zizek! ***

If Eddie Izzard decided to spend a year pretending to be Karl Marx and had an engaging American filmmaker follow him around the world with a camera the end result might look like this.

Megamind ***

Will Ferrell and Tina Fey are two of the very best comic actors of their generation and it would be great to see them on screen together. Instead, we get to hear their voices as they say the lines of the computer-generated characters of this superior animated comedy.

Hopscotch *

This is one of my parents' favourite films and while Walter Mathau is one of the three greatest mammals in the history of human evolution this is not one of his works which has aged especially well. Sorry!

The Big Sleep ****

Raymond Chandler was one of the finest prose stylists the English language has ever known. Who cares if the plots don't make sense when the writing is this good? But would his convoluted whimsy survive the translation to celuloid. Mais oui, if Howard Hawks is directing, Humphrey Bogart and Lauren Bacall are starring, and William Faulkner is on screenplay duty.

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy *****

I'm not convinced it's possible to understand all the elements of the plot just by watching the film (I had to check Wikipedia when I stumbled out of the Brixton Ritzy). There were moments when I had no idea what was going on. But this suited the themes of this exploration of fidelity and betrayal against the muted colours of 1970s London. So much is unknown and unspoken in the intelligence "community" inhabited by Gary Oldman's portrayal of John le Carré's spy that I didn't begrudge my own confusion. The excursions to Budapest and Istanbul are thrilling and frightening, and the closing sequence reveals that Oldman's stillness contained not just hurt but power and for that you want to cheer.

Melancholia ****1/2

This would be a very interesting double-bill with Armageddon because both feature large objects about to hit the earth and wipe out all life. In Michael Bay's epic a team of mining experts jetted off to blow up a meteorite. In Lars Von Trier's film a manically depressed ex-bride played by Kirsten Dunst responds by bathing in the blue light of the approaching planet and embracing the moment of annihilation as one of liberation. There's black comedy galore with Kiefer Sutherland as a know-it-all husband who is actually the less heroic character. Von Trier is much more than an enfant terrible oddball. A great writer will portray emotions and thoughts that you thought were unique to your own experience of life; Von Trier actually kindles these into life on the cinema screen. He can jump between dreamlike imagery which rings true in the subconcious to depictions of the agonies and embarrassments of modern life with a brilliance matched by no other living director I know. It might offend his avant-garde status, but at heart he's a cracking good storyteller.

Crazy Heart *****

Jeff Bridges is my favourite actor and his depiction of an alcoholic country-music star is, as you would expect, brilliant. He tosses his own ego aside when he takes on a part and brings out outstanding performances from all those who share the screen. What's special about Crazy Heart is that a wonderful film and the splendid performances adorn a beautifully crafted story. It shows how the pain in the music of the genre is rooted in lived sorrow, but how the values and hopes in the pain-bent lyrics point to a redemption which is as real as it is healing. This is a modern classic in which highly imperfect characters flash with genius, love and honour.

The Guard *****

I wanted to stand up, punch both fists in the air and cheer in delight when this fantastic Irish movie reached its glorious conclusion. The story of a loose women-loving, contraband-sampling politically-incorrect policeman who is paired up with a black FBI agent on the search for a drugs shipment could have been a wearisome (and the trailer is a ghastly butchery of the film) journey down cliche road. Instead, it's Ireland's answer to the Big Lebowski, with a touch of plot-transcending Chandleresque whimsy. At its heart is a character of vast intelligence and epic courage and grand appetite who is utterly ill-suited to the jargon-filled, petty and corrupt world of state bureaucracy. This Irish Falstaff is the last man standing when the world turns to ruin and he plods his way into a blaze of glory.

The Salt of Life ***

Gianni knows he is a chair away from becoming one of the old Italian men who sit on the street all day watching life roll past. He and his brother want one last shot at romance at a time when financially and personally each day seems to offer diminishing returns. This gentle, episodic comedy has touching moments and an extraordinary closing montage to the soundtrack of the Pixies. It is as light as a pastry served in a piazza cafe.

Think Quick

2011-12-29T19:15:00.001Z

In many a manic restaurant waiters flash with irritation when they ask diners for orders and are told: “Oh, we haven’t looked at the menu yet.”

This coming year will be a time when voters and politicians will have to make decisions in a hurry, even if none of the choices look particularly palatable.

There were probably very few Christmas Day dinners in Wales at which families talked with rapt excitement about whom they would like to see elected in November as the local police and crime commissioner.

But just as many of us have had to make a split-second choice between General Tso’s chicken and shredded chilli beef, we may find ourselves confronted in the ballot box with the names of well-known politicos promising to banish criminality from Wales.

May’s local elections will determine the composition of councils across Wales but none of the parties will be in a position to dangle juicy promises of high-calorie spending projects. The contest is about whom you want in control of public belt-tightening.

Labour will hope to make gains across Wales, and anger at the lack of economic growth is much more likely to focus on the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats than the party of government in the Senedd.

Before then, Plaid Cymru members must choose a new leader. He or she will have to use the March conference to present themselves and their vision to the Welsh public and then jump into a daunting council election campaign; a disappointing result would be another morale blow to a party which has yet to come to terms with its ejection from government.

The Westminster Government must decide how it wants this epic of uncertainty which has hit the EU to conclude.

Many Tory backbenchers were delighted when David Cameron blocked a new EU treaty and left the eurozone governments to thrash out a rescue deal. But would the transformation of euroland into a German-dominated fiscal union be a triumph for British foreign policy?

This would be preferable to the economic collapse of a continent but ministers know that if the UK passes up the chance to shape the new EU the UK will be shaped by the beast which emerges from the crisis.

Scores of Tory MPs argue the proper way forward is to ask the British public if they want to quit the EU or at least radically renegotiate the terms of membership but at the top of Government there is no appetite for another referendum.

Meanwhile, American Republicans are still searching for a credible challenger to President Obama ahead of November’s election.

On both sides of the Atlantic, it’s time to study the menu.

A Thursday Column.

The Home of the Great Archer Revisited

2011-12-24T19:39:00.004Z

The Fortress of Morpheus the Ape Revisited

2011-12-24T19:27:00.004Z

Winter Light

2011-12-23T14:24:00.001Z

On the North Coast

2011-12-22T17:38:00.004Z

Christmas last year featured deep snow and frozen fields but Portstewart today was unusually mild.

We had coffee on "the prom" and watched the sea shift through a galaxy of greys and greens.

Another wonder has illuminated the Christmas season and made me an uncle.

It's a time of change for everyone but the seafront's almost unaltered since I waddled along it with my grandmother three decades ago.

The Atlantic air guarantees you a good night's sleep and the horizon stills your soul. This is why I miss the cragged concrete and the lonely huts of a cherished dimple of a town on the north face of Ireland.

Talk About their Generation

2011-12-22T00:01:00.001Z

A zealous political campaigner once told me that the greatest danger facing her party was death.

In short, members were dying out at a faster rate than new ones were joining.
Any institution, whether a political party, a charity or a church, can invest in grand buildings in its heyday but unless it wins a new wave of members it can be dead in a generation.

Yes, parties have to make young members welcome if they are to stick around and there has to be some an effort to speak their language.

But a party wanting to win people for whom the ability to vote is something new and exciting will not gain new foot-soldiers by hiring a consultant to spray the organisation in a haze of synthetic hype.

Rather, young people will go where there is a sense of promise and possibility.

Parties depend on such members to trudge pavements on cold nights and risk the wrath of dogs by putting flyers through letterboxes. But a party that sees young members primarily as cheap labour – or, worse, as naive utopians in need of being brought down to earth – will miss an important opportunity to adapt to survive and thrive in a fast-changing culture.

New – not just young ones – members can identify opportunities that professional strategists may not. Veteran activists should sit down with fresh arrivals and listen to their ambitions and, after some basic due diligence, then work out how to make these a reality.

Wales’ four main parties are all adjusting to the challenges and opportunities presented by devolution. But for members under the age of 20, they have come of age in the past decade and a half and a Cardiff skyline without a Senedd would look odd.

Some young activists will want to win election to the Assembly while others will set their hearts on Westminster. They may well have a clearer idea than older peers of precisely why they want to enter a particular institution, of how they think they can get there, and what they want to achieve.

These men and women have witnessed coalitions at both a UK and Welsh level and are not scared of the concept of hammering out a deal and working with rivals. Far from being anathema, this is what normal politics looks like to those who have grown up in an age of Labour-Plaid and Tory-Liberal Democrat governments.

It should be a New Year Resolution for any party that wants to wield power rather than retreat to the cosy corners of protest to become places where ambition for Wales and the UK is embraced.

A Thursday Column.

Christmas Castle 2011

2011-12-21T23:39:00.003Z

Václav Havel's New Castle

2011-12-20T22:11:00.002Z

The Anti-Austerity Castle

2011-12-20T21:53:00.001Z

Instamatic Bruegel

2011-12-17T21:55:00.001Z

Cameron's Agincourt Hitch

2011-12-15T00:01:00.001Z

David Cameron is alleged to have told backbenchers last night that 2012 will be “tougher than the first two years under Thatcher”.
Margaret Thatcher fought recession and riots in her first term in government, with plunging poll numbers and rising unemployment.

But this is not remembered as a dark chapter in Conservative annals but a turning point in British history. It was in 1980 that Margaret Thatcher declared “the Lady’s not for turning” and pressed on with unpopular economic policies that – in the eyes of the Tory faithful who cherish memories of her reign – worked.

Like Britain’s first female PM, Cameron is under constant pressure to abandon his economic strategy – and yesterday’s unemployment figures gave ammunition to his opponents.

But there is another reason for him to ready his footsoldiers for the political equivalent of war. Many of these men and women are convinced that the UK has a genuinely historic opportunity to leave the European Union – or at least to renegotiate radically different terms of membership – and carve out a new role and identity on the world stage.

There are also MPs who would have been candidates for ministerial jobs if the Liberal Democrats were not coalition partners; it’s easy for such individuals to start dreaming of a snap election resulting in a Tory majority.

Cameron’s warning that his Government faces the fight of its life may have been an attempt to banish such distracting and destabilising thoughts and force MPs to prepare for a campaign that will test the mettle of their convictions.

The PM's ability to deliver a cracking speech should not be underestimated; and his words last night may go down in Commons folklore as the Tory equivalent of the Agincourt address.

But there is a hitch. The road to the 2015 election features not just battles with the unions and Labour and the challenge of dealing with Lib Dems in swing seats; there is also the prospect of dozens of miniature civil wars.

Cameron’s cull of constituencies will see the number of MPs falling from 650 to 600, with Wales losing 10 of its contingent of 40.

MPs who slog through weekend surgeries, trying to encourage the jobless and reassure the worried about welfare changes, may well face selection battles against colleagues from neighbouring seats when they compete for a redrawn constituency.

There are few spectacularly wealthy MPs. For most, politics is not just a vocation but their main source of livelihood.

All MPs effectively re-apply for their job at an election, but the prospect of having to compete against someone who shares a foxhole with you in today’s firefights must sap the morale.

A Thursday Column.

The Octopus of Possibility

2011-12-08T00:01:00.000Z

The danger to Wales of a “corrupt octopus” loomed large in the mind of Lord Pearson of Rannoch when he gazed across the waters of Cardiff Bay last year.

The then-Ukip leader compared the European Union to a tentacled beast that would swallow Wales whole.

He had the demeanour of a lone knight on a tired steed who could see the rival forces of a mighty empire marshalling on the horizon.

For years, many people have been sceptical about the chances of the single currency flourishing but to identify as a euro-sceptic has been as fashionable as wearing a union jack shell-suit.

But, today, these foes of Brussels detect a change in the zeitgeist. Prophets of doom who were once dismissed as old codgers are now honoured as visionary seers.

They sense that a moment of wild opportunity to rewrite the UK’s relationship with the EU has arrived.

Just in case nobody could think of what powers should be clawed back the EU, the Taxpayers’ Alliance were on the march this week, distributing a 29-page shopping list.

Daniel Hannan, the zealous and articulate Conservative MEP, has a wish-list of his own for this Christmas season: “We should repatriate control over essentially domestic matters, including defence, immigration, regional policy, social policy, employment law, human rights, criminal justice, agriculture, taxation, fisheries and financial services.”

He considers it “utterly ludicrous” that ministers are reluctant to press for changes because they do not want to stage a referendum.

Mr Hannan works in the bowels of Lord Pearson’s octopus and – like a bazooka-wielding Jonah – he wants to blast his way out of the monster.

We have a generation of Conservative activists who are itching for action. Labour kept them out of office from 1997 to 2010; the electorate denied them a majority last year; the presence of the Lib Dems in Government gives a yellow hue to their blue-sky plans; an SNP Scot is in power in Edinburgh who threatens to shatter the UK; Labour are still in power in Wales; and the empty coffers at the Treasury mean the military is cut and big capital projects are impossible.

But on the subject of Europe there is the chance, it seems, to embrace a possibility more spectacular than anything that has existed in their wildest dreams.

If David Cameron disappoints this tribe he will battle scores of angry foes for the remainder of his premiership but pursuing their goals will mean abandoning political certainties, straining the coalition to the point of rupture and taking a debt-laden nation on a voyage into the unknown just when a hurricane is blowing.

A Thursday Column.

Rowan's Rule - A thousandth post

2011-12-01T00:01:00.003Z

It is always splendid to bump into a Welshman in the centre of London, especially a poet with a proper beard.

On Sunday evening I left the Western Mail's Westminster office with a craving for music and a dash of Christmas liturgy so I turned right and walked up to St Martin in the Fields (an ironic name for a church located opposite Nelson's Column and one of the busiest roundabouts in Britain).

I pushed open the door and standing in near darkness to my left was Rowan Williams.

A moment later, he launched into his own advent-themed poem: “He will come like last leaf's fall. One night when the November wind has flayed the trees to bone, and earth wakes choking on the mould, the soft shroud's folding.”

One of the many differences between David Cameron and the Archbishop of Canterbury is that the Prime Minister never looks as if would rather do another job. The Conservative leader is trying to hold together the economy and, to a certain extent, the United Kingdom, but he generally has the demeanour of a batsman relishing his turn to step up to the crease; Rowan has not had such fun clutching the barrel of nitroglycerine that is the Anglican Communion.

Would he have had a merrier time as a radical MP, free to shoot from the hip on the evils of nuclear weapons and the perfidious nature of capitalism while campaigning for equality and a more considered approach to Islam? Come to think of it, he might have become Mayor of London.

He has a new readiness to venture into the political realm, most recently when he lent the “occupy” movement some credibility and gave the campaign for an international financial transaction tax a welcome boost.

When he climbed to the pulpit on Sunday, his theology and his politics chimed: “We exploit the world, we squeeze it dry; we pile up the goods of the world so that we can pretend we are safe. We invent any number of vastly complicated systems, some of them perfected in this city of London, to keep us as we imagine secure from uncertainty and from suffering and we complain bitterly when that doesn't work.”

Less than 48 hours later we had empirical proof we cannot control the world when the chancellor announced we will have to borrow £111bn more than expected and dreams of an escape from austerity vanished.

Rowan had urged the congregation to abandon the pretense of control and instead embrace a love which comes near when we drop our defences: “Understand that this is something you will never contain or control. All you can do is open your eyes, draw in your breath, receive what is to be received, and step forward.”

Rowan is an archbishop for dark nights as winter draws in. A time like now.

A Thursday Column. You can listen to the sermon here.

Go West(on-super-mare), Young Man!

2011-11-24T21:09:00.004Z

A joy of the present life is the view across to Rowan Williams's pad on the way to work each morning.

But sometimes the soul needs more than a glimpse of an ecclesiastical palace. There comes a time when you want a cocktail of sea and country air. And where else to find such a sensation than a place with a superlative in its own title? Weston-super-Mare!

I'd always wanted to head across the watery channel which divides Wales from England and explore this outpost. Fortunately, some excellent comrades were up for the trip.

The view was smokin'! (and so was almost everyone on the pier, as in there was a lot of tobacco use going on... and you could go for a simulated camel ride; we didn't. You've got to leave something for next time).

But the best delight was cooking duck risotto and enjoying conversation that crackled like a log fire with some of the finest folk with whom you could dander along a country lane as the day readied for dusk.

The Tarantino Cull and Welsh Democracy

2011-11-24T20:55:00.002Z

Tarantino’s film Kill Bill climaxes with an epic battle in the House of Blue Leaves between a samurai sword-wielding Uma Thurman and countless men in suits whom, the viewer knows from the start, will end up dead.

A similar frenzy of destruction seems imminent in Welsh politics with the number of MPs due to be culled from 40 to 30.

Politicians are used to fighting for their political lives but this time they may well be locked in combat with members of their own parties.

Of the two Conservatives representing Pembrokeshire seats today, Simon Hart and Stephen Crabb, who would win the nomination for a new super-seat? A similar contest could face North Wales Tories David Jones and Guto Bebb, and Valleys Labour heavyweights Owen Smith and Chris Bryant may have to duel in what would be a fascinating set of hustings.

There is the potential for great debates within the parties about the future role of MPs but also, to return to the Kill Bill imagery, the chance of rather a lot of blood on the carpet.

A cull of MPs is not going to excite the same wave of protest that greeted the plans for badger-dispatching but there is hard thinking to be done about whether Wales has enough political representatives.

Compare our country for a moment with the state of New Hampshire, which has a population of 1.3 million.

Its House of Representatives has 400 members – one member per 3,290 residents – and its Senate has 24 members. On top of this, it sends four members to the US Congress and has its own judiciary.

Wales has a population of three million and 60 Assembly Members – one per 50,000 residents – and will shortly have 30 MPs.

Northern Ireland has a population of 1.8 million but 108 members of its Assembly. If a similar ratio was applied here Wales would have about 180 AMs.

Despite a rapidly developing body of legislation Wales has no dedicated legal jurisdiction, no prospect of an increase in AMs to even 80 – as recommended by the Richard Commission – and zilch likelihood of the creation of a second chamber.

In this time of cuts, no Welsh taxpayer will want to shell out on ermine robes for a new set of peers. But if a reviewing chamber is considered an essential safety valve in the Westminster machine why is one not needed in Cardiff Bay?

Wales has fewer sets of eyes to review legislation and a far smaller band of backbenchers to ask difficult questions. This makes it harder for a brave, far-sighted AM to kill a bad Bill.

A Thursday Column

Bucking Destiny

2011-11-17T09:54:00.001Z

Champange flutes and pint glasses will clink next Tuesday when the 21st anniversary of Margaret Thatcher’s departure from office is marked.

Her former political secretary, John Whittingdale, this week gave a fond tribute to his erstwhile boss, who is portrayed by Meryl Streep in the movie about to hit cinema screens.

She didn’t just put this country straight, he argued. She actually helped to put this world straight.

This is the type of remark which drives Thatcher critics to distraction. The Tory leader’s battles with trade unions are seen by some on the Left as nothing less than a war against the working class.

What links her fans and detractors is the sense that Thatcher interrupted the natural course of things, that she put Britain – and arguably the world – on a different trajectory.

Left-leaning idealists argue that Britain, as a European nation, should have used its North Sea oil wealth to follow the social democratic model of the Scandinavian countries or built up a modern economy with a revived manufacturing core capable of fuelling German standards of prosperity. They remember her reign as an ill-fated embrace of an American vision of capitalist society which has weakened both the economy and our social fabric.

But her admirers rejoice that she helped to end the Cold War and that she gave Ronald Reagan unstinting support in confronting the Soviet Union. They celebrate her chutzpah in sending armed forces to fight a war off the coast of Argentina and shredding regulations to ensure London remained a world financial capital.

Mr Whittingdale, who is today an MP and chairman of the Culture, Media & Sport select committee, admitted that for a few moments she wondered whether she could continue as PM but not as leader of the Conservatives. She was quickly persuaded this was impossible, but at a time when eastern Europe was throwing off Communist shackles and a global coalition was about to battle Saddam Hussein, she was not ready to leave the stage.

More than two decades on, a sense of unfinished business defines Westminster. On the left, the dream of the UK as a social democratic paradise remains distant; on the right, her successors still view the EU as a threat to national sovereignty and look at the country’s slippage in international competitiveness league tables with alarm.

Thatcher remains a compelling figure because she forces us to ask what type of country we want. She shows that even in the confines of modern politics the parameters of conventional wisdom can be challenged; in this sense she can inspire iconoclasts on both the Left and the Right.

A Thursday Column

The Best Trilogy Ever

2011-11-15T10:02:00.003Z

The greatest trilogy in the history of cinema doesn't feature ewoks or hobbits but is Polish director Krysztof Kieslowski's Three Colours Trilogy.

Incredibly, the three films are being legally live-streamed here. They are inspired by the colours of the French flag, Blue (Liberty), White (Equality) and Red (Fraternity). The stories are linked more by themes and motifs than events but there are little moments of crossover. Arguably, Juliette Binoche's portrayal of a widow severing all links with her past in Blue is the strongest story, though White's black comedy of a Polish hairdresser smuggled back to his country in a suitcase has many fans. But Red is a work of tenderness and a cinematic expression of beauty so stirring it leaves you wondering what to do with the rest of your life.

The Home Awaiting the Celebration

2011-11-13T22:56:00.000Z

The Institute with the Reading Room Overlooking the Lake

2011-11-13T22:55:00.000Z

The House with the Revolution Room

2011-11-13T22:54:00.000Z

The House Where the Pilgrims Partied

2011-11-13T22:53:00.001Z

The Castle Where the Sages Confer

2011-11-13T22:51:00.000Z

The Home of the Renaissance Prince

2011-11-13T22:50:00.000Z

The Castle of the Poet and Her Brother

2011-11-13T22:48:00.000Z

The Castle of the First Lightbulb

2011-11-13T22:47:00.002Z

The Castle of the Two Songs

2011-11-13T22:46:00.000Z

The Ornithologist's Home

2011-11-13T22:44:00.000Z

The Castle in the Birmingham Notebook

2011-11-13T22:42:00.000Z

The Golden Carpet

2011-11-13T15:59:00.001Z

Along the Street of Castles

2011-11-13T01:45:00.005Z

Click the picture to take a stroll.

Courting Controversy

2011-11-10T00:01:00.000Z

It is unlikely many of the pioneers of devolution imagined the very future of the United Kingdom would be in doubt today.

But another revolution was launched in a moment of “big bang” constitutional innovation which could have greater significance than its architects – or the electorate – realised.

Since 2009 the Supreme Court has been the highest judicial body in the United Kingdom. In the United States, Supreme Court judges are household names, their appointment procedure features intense scrutiny of past judgements and the search for signs of political bias.

But who are the justices who sit in their gleaming new London HQ? What does it say about British democracy that so few of us would recognise Lord Phillips, the President of The Supreme Court, if he was sitting at the next table at Nando’s?

Eurosceptics rail against the influence of the European Court of Human rights on UK law but where is the debate about the power of the Supreme Court to shape our lives through rules and regulations? In a UK with law-making legislatures in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, what role should these have in the vetting of judges?
Concern about the power of judges to strike down the decisions of democratically elected governments now extends beyond the political class into the judiciary.

Jonathan Sumption QC, the latest appointment to Supreme Court, this week asked: “How far can judicial review go before it trespasses on the proper function of government and the legislature in a democracy?”

The revolution in law parallels the speed of constitutional change.

The SNP’s victory in Scotland means a referendum on independence is almost certain to take place. A commission will report on whether Scottish, Northern Irish and Welsh MPs can continue voting on England-only matters but there is potential for a constitutional crisis if this means MPs from the devolved nations would be barred from most UK cabinet posts.

A situation in which the Prime Minister is the de facto First Minister of England but continues to lead on issues of war and peace will prove untenable in the long-term but there is little appetite for a new constitutional settlement. Britain is the land of back of the envelope solutions.

Sumption’s speech was about law and not the future of Westminster and its relation to the four nations of the UK but his words are relevant: “There is surely a case for saying that constitutional change, where it occurs, should happen on purpose and after proper national debate about its wider implications. It should not come about by accident and without any acknowledgment that it is happening at all.”

A Thursday Column

Autumn Glory Outside Bath

2011-11-07T10:27:00.001Z

Why Eurosceptics Speak Norwegian

2011-11-03T00:01:00.002Z

The language of resurgent nationalism and enthusiastic devolution has swept into the mainstream of British politics and it would be extraordinary if some English MPs did not get lifted by this wave of the zeitgeist.

Members of the House of Commons will today spend several hours debating the Silk Commission – the body launched to consider giving tax-raising and other powers to the Assembly.

The commission will not meet for the first time until Friday so there is no report to discuss. MPs will therefore have the time and opportunity to share their deepest hopes and fears about the future of the United Kingdom.

The prospect of a referendum on Scottish independence – or at the very least full financial autonomy – is all but inevitable.

There is often a sense of fizzing outrage that Scottish students are spared tuition fees while English youngsters must take on years of debt as the price of entry to higher education.

But amid these outbursts of angst, English MPs must surely find themselves imagining life in an independent England.

At the last Westminster election the Conservatives won 298 seats in England, ahead of Labour on 191, the Liberal Democrats on 43 and the one Green MP.

Conservative MPs denounced as rebels last week for calling for a referendum on EU membership must shiver in excitement when dreaming of the policies such a country could pursue.

England could, theoretically, pull out of the European Union and pursue the example of Norway. Its 4.9 million oil-rich citizens rejected EU membership in 1972 and 1994 but the country is a member of the European Economic Area and the European Free Trade Association.

Instead of hammering at the gates of Brussels, people living in the land where the paper clip was invented seem to be happy eurosceptics. Polls show overwhelming opposition to full membership and the chaos in the eurozone is unlikely to woo them to the federalist cause.

But an independent England might not be a Conservative fantasia. The permanent seat at the UN would go, reborn radical liberalism might take root in the downturn-battered cities and socialist voices in local government might demand full regional devolution to challenge the dominance of London.

Cornwall, a region of beautiful landscapes and tangible deprivation, might be the setting for a modern nationalist revival.

Such scenarios are hard to imagine but the Scots have the power to force a revolution on all of us. An independent Scotland is a distinct possibility in the near future.

What once seemed a pipedream is perhaps easier to imagine than a United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland hanging together without Scotland.

A Thursday Column

Westminster Near Winter

2011-10-31T19:57:00.001Z

Leaves abandon trees.
Late evening's now nighttime.
The park gates are locked.

Seeing Human

2011-10-27T00:01:00.000Z

Today's generation of news-following children will have seen Saddam Hussein led to the scaffold, heard shot-by-shot accounts of Osama bin Laden’s assassination and watched a bleeding, battered and terrified Muammar Gaddafi in the moments before his death.

The Libyan leader was a bona fide villain on the international stage but I was chilled by the images because they were so reminiscent of an event that shook Northern Ireland when I was aged 11. The so-called “corporal killings” were captured by TV crews in Belfast in 1988.

Two non-uniformed soldiers drove, reportedly by accident, into the funeral procession of an IRA volunteer. Initially, the crowd thought they could be under attack by Loyalists - as had happened at a previous funeral - and one of the two corporals brandished a handgun as their car was surrounded and the windows smashed.

The savagery of what followed horrified, sickened and terrified Ireland. It revealed the toxicity of the hatred which had poisoned the province.

Any danger the men posed had been eliminated but, as a helicopter hovered above, they were taken away, stripped to their underwear and socks, thrown over a wall, beaten viciously and repeatedly shot.

There was no room for pity, no space for compassion, no hint of justice, and no suggestion of shared humanity.

The phone-footage of Gaddafi’s last moments captured the same jostle of the mob and an expression of helpless bewilderment and terror in the face of the condemned man.

Yes, he was a war criminal himself, but here was a human treated like a wheezing bull awaiting the matador’s sword.

When the Berlin Wall tumbled down, the democratic revolutions were remarkable for the absence of lynchings. Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife were executed after a brisk trial but such treatment was the exception.

The desire for vengeance was outweighed by the thrill of freedom; people power shattered Soviet repression but the mob did not become a monster.

Today’s children are growing up in a West reacquainted with violence. Politicians openly talk about killing terrorists and interrogation tactics that look like torture are defended glibly.

Aerial strikes by pilotless drones are a key tool in the War on Terror and if it is true hundreds of civilians have died in areas such as the borderlands of Pakistan their deaths will be of historic significance.

Ireland is still living with the consequences of 1972’s Bloody Sunday when 13 people died from gunshots. In the Middle East the tales of people who perished as “collateral damage” will be passed down the generations.

It is a mark of civilisation to perceive and honour the humanity of a foe. If we lose this bond we unleash barbarism.

A Thursday Column

Where's the Conservative Eurovision?

2011-10-20T00:01:00.000Z

There is an irony it’s a German word that describes the glee of eurosceptic MPs at the crisis in the single currency.

Never mind the fact that the apparent immolation of the Greek economy threatens to wipe out our own chances of recovery, Westminster is dripping in schadenfreude.

Sterling-defenders who were derided as empire-loving Little Englanders at the start of the last decade now take credit for keeping Britain out of the currency.

A debate on whether Britain should pull out of the EU is due this day next week, and Home Secretary Theresa May’s assault on the Human Rights Act has ensured euroscepticism now glows at the core of modern Conservatism.

It is a further irony that the MPs who are most ambitious for Britain to play a leading role on the world stage are often those most hostile to the concept of a integrated EU with international clout.

Erstwhile Defence Secretary Liam Fox was adamant that the EU should not challenge the military primacy of Nato.

However, the US has avidly promoted European integration, called for Turkey to be brought into membership, and expressed frustration that the EU is happy for America to defend the continent but reluctant to invest in a world-class military of its own.

Why have pro-US politicians on the right not emerged who are also ambitious for the UK to be the leading force in an activist EU foreign policy? The Libyan intervention showed that David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy were an impressive tag-team capable of getting jets into the sky in defence of liberty. Their commitment gave backbone to the US.

Yes, the Euro as a currency is in a horrible gangrene-ridden state and it is a scandal that this toxic scandal was allowed to develop.

But the development of post-World War II democratic Europe is a US-sponsored project and remains a crowning achievement in the story of not just the continent but humanity. The financial crisis has deepened a sense that Europe is destined to decline as new economies rise but look at the vitality of this 502 million-person union with a GDP of $15 trillion (the same as the US) and raise a glass to its nations’ diversity and commitment to democracy.

The political establishment is clear it does not want a United States of Europe and sceptics were right to warn that the Euro was a ticket to calamity. But we also need people who to put forward positive and exciting vision for how the countries of Europe can work together in the 21st century to shape this world so that prosperity spreads and freedom rules.

A Thursday Column

The Colours of Eden

2011-10-19T12:24:00.002Z

One of the best things that can be said about the Eden Project in Cornwall is that even though its giant domes make it look like a Martian colony, the most amazing sights are not works of architecture but nature.

The Trees at Fowey

2011-10-19T12:19:00.002Z

Wandering from the Centre

2011-10-10T10:17:00.002Z

Just as hikers on a wet day in the Brecon Beacons might fantasise about having a pair of giant springs for legs so they could jump to the summit of Pen-y-fan, the prospect of a magic majority has excited imaginations at the Conservative party conference.

On April 9, Tories may toast John Major and celebrate the 20th anniversary of the last time they won a majority in the House of Commons. But is an outright victory still possible or is Britain is destined for generations of coalitions?

Tories and swathes of Labour supporters successfully killed off electoral reform earlier this year at the time of the AV referendum because they did not want all future elections to climax with a battle for the affections of the Lib Dems.

A Britain in which Nick Clegg’s party always had a role in government was disparagingly referred to as “chips with everything”.

But the Conservatives failed to win a majority against an unpopular third-term Labour Government last year. There is no guarantee that in 2015 voters will thank them for years of tough economic medicine by granting the party a ballot box bonanza.

There was a tangible excitement about the coalition when it was launched in the Downing Street rose garden and an historic centre-right realignment of UK politics seemed possible but such optimism is hard to find today. Instead, it is presented as the brave compromise needed to rescue the economy.

Tory cabinet members may loathe the Human Rights Act but there is no prospect of tearing it up while Mr Clegg and his colleagues sit at the same table. Diehard supporters of capital punishment and withdrawal from the EU know that without a thumping majority there is no way they can translate their convictions into policy; even the scrapping of the 50p tax seems impossible in a yellow-tinged universe.

But supporters of a positive, modern conservatism need to reignite enthusiasm for the coalition, the opportunities of government and the idea of alliances or another realignment will take place and they will discover in 2015 that their party has become a fossil, located way beyond the centre-ground where elections are won.

Left-leaning Lib Dems waved giant olive branches at Labour last month at their Birmingham conference. And Labour-supporters in Liverpool talked of these Lib Dems not as betrayers of the progressive cause but as if describing a fundamentally decent sibling temporarily stuck with a lousy boyfriend.

Ultimately, it is the electorate that has the magical ability to dispense power – and even a majority. The challenge is to move heaven and earth to address their hopes and fears.

A Thursday Column

The Pursuit is Happiness

2011-10-10T10:15:00.001Z

Hacks, lobbyists and random conference-goers have turned to each other at Liberal Democrat and Labour gatherings to say: “Doesn’t everyone seem chipper?”

Repeated polls show the Lib Dems are about as popular as algebra and Labour is a party locked out of power in Westminster.

But power-dressing young men and women gallop around conference centres aglow with enthusiasm and even older MPs and peers are as gleeful as Ken Dodd.

Nobody is selling sackcloth and ashes. Instead, there is a freshers’ week atmosphere and a day that starts with an earnest breakfast debate about mildew on traffic cones can climax with competitive yodelling in a karaoke bar.

We might expect politicos to be gloomy when their party is down in the polls and their leader is lampooned but this misses an essential fact about modern democracy.

The men and women who have climbed the swivelling ladder which leads to elected office are cockahoop to be there.

This life of punishing hours and economy class travel is one they have longed for and fought for.

They might prefer it if their party was as popular as Justin Bieber’s cat but it is still a thrill to be able to earn a living as an AM or MP.

An actor might long to play Hamlet or Lear but even a walk-on role in an RSC production is better than the desperate tedium of sitting on a sofa waiting for your agent to call. Similarly, a full-time footballer in a sub-premier league team is thankful he gets to kick a ball for a job instead of filleting fish.

Just as a screenwriter works in comparative darkness to craft a blockbuster that a future director will turn into Hollywood glory, the strategists who today plot their party’s comeback are performing a labour of love.

Even when a politician is in a crisis and under the glare of the Fleet Street spotlight there is sometimes a hint that they are enjoying life at the centre of a drama.

The presence of photographers on the doorstep is proof that they are truly public figures who live on the national stage.

Boxers expect to take hard knocks as they pursue their champion dreams, and a party that is on the ropes is still packed with people who watch Yes, Minister and the West Wing and revel in a life in the thick of it.

Some of them believe they have a chance to change the world and while pundits pontificate, academics theorise and protestors holler these adrenalin-filled adventurers are happy to live and work in the political midfield.

A Thursday Column

Hunting Internet Access in Liverpool

2011-09-28T23:47:00.001Z

Euro Ketchup

2011-09-22T09:57:00.001Z

Only the most zealous Europhile who secretly enjoyed being pelted with tomatos would jump on a soapbox today and argue that Britain should join the euro.

Doing so would be like pointing up at an aeroplane which has smoke coming out of both engines and is lurching groundwards and saying, “Wouldn’t it be great to be on board?”

It is the Eurosceptics who feel they are on the front-foot. Mark Pritchard, the secretary of the Conservative party’s 1922 committee wants a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union.

He clearly thinks it could be won. Traditionally, Britain is not a referendum-friendly country; many politicians regard these public votes as a way for cowardly leaders to avoid fighting for their convictions in the House of Commons.

But the Alternative Vote referendum in May set a precedent – and it showed right-wingers that they could win referendums. The prospect of any change to the voting system was killed off when the No campaign won 67.9% of the vote.

Back in 2007, then-Liberal Democrat leader Menzies Campbell called for a referendum on EU membership. This idea was laid to rest in 2009.

Even voters who do not share Mr Pritchard’s conviction that the EU is an “occupying force” might want to put the greatest possible distance between the misery-hit Eurozone and the UK.

The irony is that the financial crisis is the latest drama to expose not dictatorial tendencies within the EU but a deficit of leadership.

At a time when the global economy is threatened by the potential collapse of some of our key trading partners European Council president Herman Van Rompuy has singularly failed to become a household name.

There had been talk that Tony Blair would take on this role but the EU opted for a decidedly unpresidential president.

The task of staving off economic cataclysm has fallen on the shoulders of Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy.

Similarly, the Arab Spring did not make the EU’s first High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Cathy Ashton, a diplomatic superstar and it was Sarkozy and David Cameron who battled for intervention.

And though the EU has a deep interest in seeing peace in the Middle East it has nothing like the influence of the United States in Israel and the Palestinian territories.

The euro may be in the emergency room but there is a role for a dynamic alliance of European democracies committed to open markets and international engagement.

Whether the sedated institutions of the EU can rise to the challenge is deeply uncertain.

A Thursday Column

The End of the World as We Knew It

2011-09-21T20:26:00.002Z

Just back from the Liberal Democrats in Birmingham and I hear that REM are no more.

It seems appropriate to mark the passing of a band which meant so much to me as a teenager by quoting from an A-Level set text...

The breaking of so great a thing should make
A greater crack. The round world
Should have shook lions into civil streets,
And citizens to their dens.

Mick Jagger, Samuel Beckett and Nick Clegg

2011-09-15T00:01:00.000Z

Tony Blair’s fascination with Mick Jagger is well-documented but any politician would respect his gift for survival and undying flair for performance.

He also knows something about life in a coalition. His latest supergroup, SuperHeavy features AR Rahman, Joss Stone and Dave Stewart. “Everyone had to subsume their egos to some point,” he explained. “There wasn't really someone who was ‘the boss.”

Last week, Tory MP Nadine Dorries called on David Cameron to show Deputy Prime Minister Clegg who is “the boss”.

And, yesterday, Mr Clegg used a London School of Economics speech to warn that there was “little margin for error” as the economy reels from a “dramatic change” in the international situation.

Coming on the same day that unemployment has hit 2.51 million, Mr Clegg has demonstrated his willingness to play melancholic notes. He seems to enjoy a genuinely good working relationship with his Conservative jamming partner but he is definitely the most likely of the two to strike a wistful tone.

Just last year, shortly before the May Westminster election, he described his love of Samuel Beckett.

Claiming to have read Waiting for Godot 100 times, he said: “The unsettling idea, most explicit in Godot, that life is habit – that it is all just a series of motions devoid of meaning – never gets any easier. It’s that willingness to question the things the rest of us take for granted that I admire most about Beckett; the courage to ask questions that are dangerous because, if the traditions and meanings we hold so dear turn out to be false, what do we do then?”

His readiness to acknowledge the frailty of the economic situation contrasts with the traditional tub-thumping we might expect. There is no insistence that a golden economic age is around the corner; just a pledge to make sure Government bucks deliver the biggest bang.

If the most crucial asset for recovery is investor confidence, a stark admission of the scale of the challenges facing Britain may be more assuring to the business community than a denial of reality.

Quite what Mr Cameron makes of his deputy’s mood music is unclear, but neither man is likely to be in a photo-op with Mr Jagger in the near future.

The last song on the new album, I Can't Take It No More, features the lines: All you scurvy politicians, crying endless contrition. It really gets my goat, it sticks in my throat.”

The Rolling Stone explained: “They find themselves the prisoners of practicalities and realities.”

Quite. Mr Beckett and Mr Clegg might have said something very similar.

A Thursday column.

Path of the West Country Girl

2011-09-11T23:02:00.001Z

Portstewart Strand

2011-09-08T00:01:00.000Z

The Palace of Propulsion

2011-09-06T00:01:00.000Z

We're Engaged!

2011-09-04T18:11:00.002Z

Dearest Friends,

It is with the greatest of joy and a surge of delight we can tell you we hope to marry.

Late on Thursday afternoon, right in front of this branch, the utterly fantastic Alison Davies agreed to wed me!

The closer you looked at the moss and lichen, Alison observed, new details emerged. And when we look at what the future might hold - blessed as we are by friends and family who humble us with their example of love - we feel excitement.

Thank you, so many of you, for blessing us so richly so far. Your friendship and fellowship thread our world with gold. Your support has brought love and laughter and adventure and discovery into our lives.

We thank God for you. Please hold us in your prayers as our new chapter begins. We look forward to sharing wonderful times with you as new days unfold.

The Absence of Kyffin Williams

2011-09-01T00:01:00.001Z

It is five years ago today that Sir Kyffin Williams passed away and the great artist is missed almost as much as he is admired.

He ranks alongside the poet RS Thomas and the splendid travel chronicler Jan Morris as an example of a Welsh person who was an absolute master of a craft but also an individual with little time for conformity.

His austere landscapes portrayed a Wales that might be storm-battered but was in no danger of being blown away. The ancient hills and mountains will outlast the crazes, fears and fashions of the individuals that might scamper across these ranges.

Although he was a stylist of the highest order who could also paint fast, he dismissed as “junk art” modern works which were not rooted in the core skills of draughtsmanship.

Just as RS Thomas was happy to embrace his many contrarian streaks, he had no fear of standing away from the crowd. Sir Kyffin, a son of Anglesey, roamed across Venice, drank in its marvels, turned his brush on this most-painted city and found fresh beauty amid its bridges, churches and canals; he was a Welshman unafraid to focus his gaze on the world.

It is fascinating to ask what the likes of Sir Kyffin and RST might have made of the March 3 referendum and delivery of powers from one end of the M4 to the other. But we could use such individuals of talent and independence in our politics.

Solidarity is one of the greatest Welsh values and the efforts to create prototype health services in the Valleys before the dawn of the welfare state were more revolutionary than any idea discussed at the time in Bloomsbury. Workers crafted the change they wanted to see and transformed the political imagination.

But solidarity is a very different principle to safety in numbers. We need people of formidable, world-class insight who are prepared to step away from the crowd, question conventional wisdom, and blaze their own lonely trails if needs be.

Politics will always attract eccentrics but to find an individual of true perception and courage is harder. Party selection processes are not designed to favour the grumpy iconoclast who is happier breaking taboos than obeying whips.

Yet, with just 60 AMs and 40 MPs, there is a need to find room for people who will snort at “junk politics”, who understand law, legislation and economics (political draughtsmanship, you could call it) but also burn with a mature vision for Wales and the wider world. Then, this new political generation which has been blessed with the broad palette of devolution could be driven to create a masterpiece.

A Thursday Column

The Castle with the Jewel of Peace

2011-08-29T13:11:00.001Z

Christmas Castle 2010 Revisted for the Second Time

2011-08-29T12:42:00.004Z

The Castle for the Niece on Redemption Island

2011-08-29T11:53:00.001Z

The Hungarian Castle Revisited

2011-08-29T11:42:00.003Z

The Libyan Equation

2011-08-25T00:01:00.002Z

The one adjective it is impossible to use to describe the Libyan uprising is “non-violent”.

This is a revolt led by warriors who were defended by the air forces of the most powerful military alliance in history.

The Arab Spring was never bloodless. The suicide of humiliated street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi was the linchpin for the Tunisian uprising.

But the rising in Libya was not just a confrontation with the power of a tyrannical regime; it was a fight and the rebels – defended by Nato – broke its power. This is an event which will be studied by tyrants and dissidents with acute interest.

Democratic activists who have suffered under Robert Mugabe for years will wonder whether they should have staged a fully-fledged revolution which would have given the West the choice of standing by and watching Rwandan-style massacres or rushing to their aid and toppling the dictator.

Mugabe and even milder autocrats will look at Gaddafi’s burning compound and see little incentive to grasp any olive branches extended by western diplomats. If a onetime terrorist kingpin scraps his WMD and opens up his country’s natural resources to international development, is this how he is rewarded?

They will see reason to clamp down on both pro-democracy supporters in any emerging middle-class and on street-level rebels.

Meanwhile, neoconservatives who were mocked for trying to bomb Iraq towards freedom may grasp a new model for regime change. The response to Libya fused targeted military action with traditional diplomatic tools, except that this time western countries recognised the National Transitional Council as the legitimate government before the uprising was complete.

There is less talk of velvet revolutions and soft power, these days; violence is once again recognised as a central part of the political equation – at home and abroad.

In Ireland, youths who grew up in the heyday of the peace process are being lured into paramilitarism, thousands of people are lobbying online for the return of the state executions of murderers in Britain, Jihadists continue to plot mayhem, the philosopher kings of the far left are flirting with talk of “terror” and lone gunmen in England, the United States and Norway are using killing as the most decadent form of self-expression.

Apostles and advocates for nonviolence, if there are any left, need to show that the actions of Gandhi and Martin Luther King were courageous and strategic engagements with political systems that resulted in sustainable and revolutionary change. If alternatives to a military-led foreign policy and iron-fisted domestic politics are to have any credibility in an era of constant crisis we need clear demonstrations that peace works.

A Thursday Column

Nick Cave writes to MTV

2011-08-21T07:53:00.001Z

This is apparently a real letter, sent by Nick Cave to MTV, which is another reason why the dude is a platinum marvel.

TO ALL THOSE AT MTV,
I WOULD LIKE TO START BY THANKING YOU ALL FOR THE SUPPORT YOU HAVE GIVEN ME OVER RECENT YEARS AND I AM BOTH GRATEFUL AND FLATTERED BY THE NOMINATIONS THAT I HAVE RECEIVED FOR BEST MALE ARTIST. THE AIR PLAY GIVEN TO BOTH THE KYLIE MINOGUE AND P. J. HARVEY DUETS FROM MY LATEST ALBUM MURDER BALLADS HAS NOT GONE UNNOTICED AND HAS BEEN GREATLY APPRECIATED. SO AGAIN MY SINCERE THANKS.
HAVING SAID THAT, I FEEL THAT IT'S NECESSARY FOR ME TO REQUEST THAT MY NOMINATION FOR BEST MALE ARTIST BE WITHDRAWN AND FURTHERMORE ANY AWARDS OR NOMINATIONS FOR SUCH AWARDS THAT MAY ARISE IN LATER YEARS BE PRESENTED TO THOSE WHO FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE COMPETITIVE NATURE OF THESE AWARD CEREMONIES. I MYSELF, DO NOT. I HAVE ALWAYS BEEN OF THE OPINION THAT MY MUSIC IS UNIQUE AND INDIVIDUAL AND EXISTS BEYOND THE REALMS INHABITED BY THOSE WHO WOULD REDUCE THINGS TO MERE MEASURING. I AM IN COMPETITION WITH NO-ONE.
MY RELATIONSHIP WITH MY MUSE IS A DELICATE ONE AT THE BEST OF TIMES AND I FEEL THAT IT IS MY DUTY TO PROTECT HER FROM INFLUENCES THAT MAY OFFEND HER FRAGILE NATURE.
SHE COMES TO ME WITH THE GIFT OF SONG AND IN RETURN I TREAT HER WITH THE RESPECT I FEEL SHE DESERVES - IN THIS CASE THIS MEANS NOT SUBJECTING HER TO THE INDIGNITIES OF JUDGEMENT AND COMPETITION. MY MUSE IS NOT A HORSE AND I AM IN NO HORSE RACE AND IF INDEED SHE WAS, STILL I WOULD NOT HARNESS HER TO THIS TUMBREL - THIS BLOODY CART OF SEVERED HEADS AND GLITTERING PRIZES. MY MUSE MAY SPOOK! MAY BOLT! MAY ABANDON ME COMPLETELY!
SO ONCE AGAIN, TO THE PEOPLE AT MTV, I APPRECIATE THE ZEAL AND ENERGY THAT WAS PUT BEHIND MY LAST RECORD, I TRULY DO AND SAY THANK YOU AND AGAIN I SAY THANK YOU BUT NO...NO THANK YOU.

An Iron Fist in a Lavender City

2011-08-18T00:01:00.000Z

English cities are still reeling from last week’s looting spree and politicians compete to express shock at the wild disregard for private property.

But England is a country where the idea of the “perfect crime” makes hearts beat faster. This is the land of Robin Hood and even its coziest films depict scurrilous heists.

The Lavender Hill Mob, The Ladykillers and The Italian Job are as English as cucumber sandwiches and warm beer. The characters of the “gentleman thief” and the dashing highwayman who charm their victims and disappear into the night with a handkerchief full of diamonds are more romanticised than any crime-fighter.

If a winsome rascal with a David Niven moustache managed to smuggle the crown jewels out of the Tower of London in a hot air balloon and went on to enjoy happy sun-filled afternoons in Latin America he would be celebrated as a fine example of a chap who got away with it.

The vile thuggery of the rioters was the antithesis of this tradition. It is almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which a villain played by Alec Guinness would don a hoodie and take a sledgehammer to the window of a footwear shop.

The looters were dismally unimaginative in their choice of swag and the ugliness and stupidity of the rampage would have Professor Moriarty holding his head in his hands. No criminal mastermind would plot his escapade on Facebook or post pictures of his contraband on Twitter.

But if the moronic nature of the rioters is a cause of concern, the force with which the criminal justice system has come down on some of the most hapless characters has also raised eyebrows.

It may be a despicable thing to call for a riot, but giving four-year sentences to lunatics who failed to persuade anyone to turn up to their rumpus – and who were daft enough to make their clarion call for anarchy on the internet – is quite draconian. The taxpayer will spend many thousands jailing these nefarious goons but would society be better off if they had been banned from the internet and sentenced to several hundred hours of graffiti-cleaning?

This would at least have got them outdoors, away from the glowing computer screens where their moral compasses were clearly scrambled.

It would be a great shame if the rush to impose headline-spawning sentences obscured the vexing questions of why (a) why collective madness seized so many people and (b) why thugs were allowed in full view of the police and media helicopters were allowed to start fires, ransack shops and run amok in a capital city.

A Thursday Column

Two Speeches in One Morning on the Riots

2011-08-15T11:13:00.003Z

As he went first, here's David Cameron's as a Worldle (click pix to see full-size):

And now Ed Miliband's!

Postmodern Riots

2011-08-11T00:01:00.000Z

Riots and confrontations between the mob and the forces of law and order run through the history of London.

In each generation there is a moment when society seems on the verge of fracturing and nights of violence force people to confront growling discontent and poisonous attitudes. This new clarity of vision is also an opportunity to embrace change which will bring healing and justice.

The Gordon Riots of 1780 revealed toxic anti-Catholicism, and in 1985 the Brixton and Broadwater Farm disturbances exposed deep tensions between the black community and the Metropolitan police. The 1990 poll tax riots and last year’s violent student protests showed that fury at Government policy can steam out onto the streets.

But the present outbreak of disorder is compelling because there is no clear motivation for the actors in this grotesque spectacle beyond the diabolical fun of setting a building on fire or the buzz of getting a new pair of trainers.

Yes, the violence followed a march on a Tottenham police station in response to the shooting of Mark Duggan – a hugely serious event which demands full investigation – but the majority of rioters are manifestly rebels without a cause.

Is this what street violence looks like in the postmodern age, when nihilism runs wild and hoodlums need nothing as archaic as a “reason” to shatter windows? When such irrationality takes hold it is easy to imagine the casual brutality envisaged by Anthony Burgess in A Clockwork Orange becoming commonplace.

The irony is that in less than a year London is due to host the Olympic Games and an opening ceremony which will celebrate the perfectability of the human body and the inherent goodness of men and women. The revival of the Olympics coincides with the bloodiest chapter in human history, featuring industrialised genocide, two world wars and the dropping of atomic bombs.

Empty-headed waffle about the superlative essence of humanity will seem especially saccharin in a city which has seen proof that our destructive instincts need to be curtailed.

The failure to get to grips with the social conditions conducive to such mayhem parallels the international community’s feeble efforts to eradicate the scandal of famine and address climate change.

But now that the riots have forced us to accept that something is wrong with Britain we have a chance to change society. And when it is clear that the global economy and ecosystem is in peril our leaders have the responsibility to act with a fresh humility and urgency; it is irrational not to, and the alternative is global chaos which will eclipse the fury of every riot we have known thus far.

A Thursday Column

Why the Tories won't sit quietly

2011-08-04T10:50:00.003Z

If David Cameron wants to enjoy his holiday under Tuscan skies he should avoiding reading the latest report from the defence committee.

It doesn’t quite say the notion that Britain can make major savings in the defence budget without weakening the military or the UK’s international influence is “hogwash” but it comes quite close.

He is too canny a politician to toss the green-bound document into the swimming pool with an exasperated “Urrgh!”.

He knows that for many of his own MPs one of the key missions of the Conservative Party is halting the UK’s post-imperial decline; Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair argued that the country could remain a global power and exercise strategic force.

Mr Cameron needs to cook up some spicy dish in time for the autumn conference which will delight his party and convince the flag-wavers that the Liberal Democrats have not captured his soul.

But if you listen to the rumbling coming from Westminster you can hear something more interesting than the grumbling of Tory MPs who have missed out on ministerial jobs. One odd consequence of coalition government is that this grand old institution, which was so badly bruised by the expenses scandal, has been re-energised.

During Labour’s 13 years in Government, sages routinely lamented the decline in the power of Parliament. But this was not primarily due to any nefarious Downing Street plan but because the electorate handed Mr Blair whopping majorities; he was the leader of the Labour Party, he had more than enough MPs to take forward manifesto policies, and the opposition could do little more than decry the rise of presidential politics in Britain.

But today there is a greater distinction between government and Parliament than we have seen for many years. Conservative and Lib Dem ministers may be in power but their parties have not merged to form a blue and yellow blancmange on the green benches.

In June Tory backbenchers forced their chiefs to allow them a free vote to ban the use of wild animals in circuses. This was a mighty warning shot; if they were prepared to rebel over circuses, think what they might do on Europe or defence. Loyalty to the party is not synonymous with being a coalition drone.

Almost weekly, a cross-party select committee report delivers a damning assessment on some aspect of government spending or policy.

Much of the fire is often directed at past Labour governments, but is clear that the new generation of MPs are independently minded and ready to hold a government – even one led by the leader of their own party – to account.

A Thursday Column

Gratuitous Joy

2011-08-04T10:27:00.002Z

Rowan Williams: "God’s act in creating the world is gratuitous, so everything comes to me as a gift. God simply wills that there shall be joy for something other than himself. That is the lifeblood of what I believe."

(Noted here)

The Challenge of John Stott

2011-08-03T00:01:00.009Z

The death of John Stott is a watershed moment in the history of modern evangelicalism. He represented a faith which was not neo-fundamentalism but a bold effort to engage and love a rapidly changing world. It was a renewal movement in Christianity and reformational in spirit, in that a major focus was sharing theology with the men and women in the pews in recognition that these people with jobs and families were the real priests on the frontline. In contrast with the pietism of past generations, this infusion of knowledge was intended to spur an outpouring of love; not only was the traditional evangelical emphasis on the "great commission" of disciple-making celebrated, so was the "greatest commandment" of loving your neighbour.

This vision of evangelicalism is not the popular image of a diverse movement. The assiduous courting of American evangelicals was a key part of Karl Rove's strategy to secure a sustainable future for the Republican party. The emergence of the religious right has undoubtedly been one of the major phenomenons in modern western politics but this has not been the driving concern of the movement itself. In fact, the apparent ease with which many evangelicals were co-opted at elections suggests evangelicals in America spent too little time thinking about politics and not too much.

The UK Guardian provided perhaps the best British obituary of Stott, which noted that his theological conservatism did not automatically translate into political conservatism:

David Turner wrote:

Stott, radical in his conservatism, could not be pigeonholed. He was deeply committed to the need for social, economic and political justice and passionately concerned about climate change and ecological ethics. He regarded the Bible as his supreme authority and related its teaching to all areas of knowledge and experience. He insisted that Christians should engage in "double listening" – to the word of God, and to the world around them – and apply their biblical faith to all the pressing issues of contemporary culture. He himself researched, preached and wrote on a wide range of matters – from global debt to global warming, from the duties of the state to medical ethics and euthanasia. This was the kind of evangelicalism he embodied.

Similarly, Nicholas Kristof in the New York Times started his tribute, saying: 'In these polarized times, few words conjure as much distaste in liberal circles as “evangelical Christian.”'

He continued:

Yet that casual dismissal is profoundly unfair of the movement as a whole. It reflects a kind of reverse intolerance, sometimes a reverse bigotry, directed at tens of millions of people who have actually become increasingly engaged in issues of global poverty and justice.
This compassionate strain of evangelicalism was powerfully shaped by the Rev. John Stott, a gentle British scholar who had far more impact on Christianity than media stars like Mr. Robertson or Mr. Falwell. Mr. Stott, who died a few days ago at the age of 90, was named one of the globe’s 100 most influential people by Time, and in stature he was sometimes described as the equivalent of the pope among the world’s evangelicals.
Mr. Stott didn’t preach fire and brimstone on a Christian television network. He was a humble scholar whose 50-odd books counseled Christians to emulate the life of Jesus — especially his concern for the poor and oppressed — and confront social ills like racial oppression and environmental pollution.
“Good Samaritans will always be needed to succor those who are assaulted and robbed; yet it would be even better to rid the Jerusalem-Jericho road of brigands,” Mr. Stott wrote in his book “The Cross of Christ.”

Stott's hunger to engage with the greatest social issues of our day came from his engagement with the Bible. His simple belief that this book contained wonder brighter than the beauty revealed by the Hubble telescope burned at the heart of his preaching and writing, which was remarkably un-flash; he did not come across as a motivational speaker or a salesman for the faith. Rather, he was more like an archaeologist who would find a ruby in the dust and pass it to you to admire and study in the years to come.

John Piper, a hugely influential exponent of Calvinism, wrote:

To this day I have zero interest in watching a preacher take his stand on top of the (closed) treasure chest of Bible sentences and eloquently talk about his life or his family or the news or history or culture or movies, or even general theological principles and themes, without opening the chest and showing me the specific jewels in these Bible sentences.
John Stott turned the words of Bible sentences into windows onto glorious reality by explaining them in clear, compelling, complete, coherent, fresh, silly-free, English sentences...
This is what I was starving for and didn’t even know it. Amazing! Someone is telling me what these sentences mean! Someone is making light shine on these words. It is shining so bright, I can’t sleep in this light! I am waking up from decades of dull dealing with God’s word. Thank you. Thank you. I could care less if you tell me any stories. I want to know what God means by these words!

Evangelicalism now lacks a Stott figure. It's a huge beast of a movement encompassing millions of new Chinese converts, South Korean missionaries, Latin American Pentecostals, baseball-loving Americans and Congolese immigrants to Dublin. In the United States, and to some extent Britain, the theological focus appears to be less on Biblical discovery and engagement with the wider world and more on attempting to nail down precisely what evangelicals should believe. Many of the most prominent bloggers seem determined to equate Calvinism (with its focus on predestination) with evangelicalism. However, while the concept that God ordains evil as well as good and that Jesus did not so much die for the sins of the whole world as those of the "elect" whom He would summon to himself (and not by their own free will) may have been at the heart of New England Puritanism it will shock millions of evangelicals.

It is ironic Stott's landmark work on the significance of Jesus's death and resurrection is celebrated as one of the key texts of modern evangelicalism by many of those at the forefront of the spectacular resurgence in neo-Calvinism but somehow there does not seem to be the same enthusiam for Stott's vision of Christians following Christ's call to act as "salt and light" in a world God loves by seeking societal transformation.

Tim Challies, a leading neo-Calvinist who loves the Bible and clearly wants to follow it faithfully, wrote last year:

There is a time and a place for humanitarian work, no doubt. Christians can carry out great ministries serving the poor and the oppressed and in so doing can have remarkable opportunities to share the gospel. And yet still the history of Christianity shows that when Christians do this, the gospel quickly becomes secondary and the work itself becomes the gospel. I still see the Bible primarily emphasizing charity given to other believers; when I look at Acts and the epistles, this is what I see most—Christians helping other Christians as a sign of love and fraternity. Now of course there will be some who engage in humanitarian work outside the context of the local church, but it seems to me that the closer we come to making this a necessary part of the Christian mission, the more likely we are to see the gospel diminish.

No doubt Challies can think of many examples where this has taken place. And it is true that evangelical-founded relief organisations such as World Vision and Tear Fund face the challenge of operating as leading NGOs while finding a way to express an eternal Christian message. Also, at a time when evangelicalism is bereft of a unifying leader, it alarms many when people once seen as bright hopes for the future question and challenge doctrines traditionally considered core tenets of evangelical orthodoxy. In such a climate, theological and social retrenchment can appear attractive, even tempting.

But contrast this with Stott's own meditation on salt and light in a 2006 interview which today stands as a challenge to the movement he led with humility and passion throughout a splendid life:

They change the environments in which they are placed. Salt hinders bacterial decay. Light dispels darkness. This is not to resurrect the social gospel. We cannot perfect society. But we can improve it. My hope is that in the future, evangelical leaders will ensure that their social agenda includes such vital but controversial topics as halting climate change, eradicating poverty, abolishing armories of mass destruction, responding adequately to the AIDS pandemic, and asserting the human rights of women and children in all cultures. I hope our agenda does not remain too narrow.

Glimmering Recognition

2011-07-28T00:01:00.000Z

Foreign Secretary William Hague performed a diplomatic dance-move yesterday which he hopes will wrong-foot Muammar Gaddafi.

Britain has expelled the Libyan despot’s embassy team and recognised the rebels’ national transitional council as the “sole government authority”.

This is a new tactic for Brits, and, if the ghosts of Mr Hague’s predecessors were yesterday pacing the corridors of the Foreign Office, many of them would have stroked their beards in scepticism.

The UK is using diplomatic recognition as a way of trying to shape the future. The Government does not like the spectacle of Gaddafi remaining in power, and it is aware that months of aerial bombardment and the rhetoric of the Arab Spring have not ignited a revolution in Tripoli.

Britain is now elevating the status of the council it hopes will one day be in charge of Libya, even though it is manifestly not today.

Traditionally, the UK has taken an unromantic view of diplomatic recognition: you identify who pulls the levers of power in a country and you deal with them.
This is why Britain recognised Communist-run China in 1950, not long after its founding in October 1949.

In contrast, the United States has an aversion to recognising governments run by people it regards as thuggish and hostile. It did not establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China until 1979.

This latest stage in our embrace of the rebels suggests we are becoming more American in our foreign policy, more idealistic – which is not something one would have expected when William Hague won the keys to his impressive office.

However, Britain has not abandoned realpolitik. This is a calculated gamble by a Government that insists it is not under time pressure but must keenly hope that the intervention in Libya does not come with a billion-pound price tag.

It now seems unthinkable that there will be a Tahrir Square moment in Libya in which the country’s different factions come together in an outstanding moment of unity and force an epoch-defining moment of change.

If polarisation intensifies between we may be witnessing the de facto partition of Libya. Neighbouring Sudan has shown it is possible for a country to split in two, and our military campaign will not have been a wasted effort if it has prevented the type of bloodbath that tore through the African state.

Nevertheless, hard thinking needs to take place in Britain about when and how we recognise countries, not least because the Palestinian Authority may shortly ask us to consider its territory as an independent state. Do we see the world as we wish it was or how it is?

A Thursday Column

The Jubilate Rooms

2011-07-25T22:23:00.002Z

The Homes of the Whispering Hermits

2011-07-25T22:21:00.003Z

The Castle Lit by Love

2011-07-25T22:10:00.002Z

The Castle of the Spanish Knight

2011-07-25T22:08:00.002Z

The Home of Open Joy

2011-07-25T22:05:00.001Z

The Spring Tower

2011-07-25T22:03:00.001Z

The Easter Palace

2011-07-25T22:01:00.000Z

Christmas Castle 2010 Revisited

2011-07-25T21:59:00.002Z

The Son's House on the Moor

2011-07-25T21:56:00.004Z

The Castle by the Frozen Lake Revisited

2011-07-25T21:51:00.000Z

David Foster Wallace on Worship

2011-07-25T12:18:00.002Z

There is no such thing as not worshipping. Everybody worships. The only choice we get is what to worship. And an outstanding reason for choosing some sort of God or spiritual-type thing to worship -- be it J.C. or Allah, be it Yahweh or the Wiccan mother-goddess or the Four Noble Truths or some infrangible set of ethical principles -- is that pretty much anything else you worship will eat you alive. If you worship money and things -- if they are where you tap real meaning in life -- then you will never have enough. Never feel you have enough. It's the truth. Worship your own body and beauty and sexual allure and you will always feel ugly, and when time and age start showing, you will die a million deaths before they finally plant you. On one level, we all know this stuff already -- it's been codified as myths, proverbs, clichés, bromides, epigrams, parables: the skeleton of every great story. The trick is keeping the truth up-front in daily consciousness. Worship power -- you will feel weak and afraid, and you will need ever more power over others to keep the fear at bay. Worship your intellect, being seen as smart -- you will end up feeling stupid, a fraud, always on the verge of being found out. And so on.

Look, the insidious thing about these forms of worship is not that they're evil or sinful; it is that they are unconscious. They are default-settings. They're the kind of worship you just gradually slip into, day after day, getting more and more selective about what you see and how you measure value without ever being fully aware that that's what you're doing. And the world will not discourage you from operating on your default-settings, because the world of men and money and power hums along quite nicely on the fuel of fear and contempt and frustration and craving and the worship of self. Our own present culture has harnessed these forces in ways that have yielded extraordinary wealth and comfort and personal freedom. The freedom to be lords of our own tiny skull-sized kingdoms, alone at the center of all creation. This kind of freedom has much to recommend it. But of course there are all different kinds of freedom, and the kind that is most precious you will not hear much talked about in the great outside world of winning and achieving and displaying. The really important kind of freedom involves attention, and awareness, and discipline, and effort, and being able truly to care about other people and to sacrifice for them, over and over, in myriad petty little unsexy ways, every day. That is real freedom. The alternative is unconsciousness, the default-setting, the "rat race" -- the constant gnawing sense of having had and lost some infinite thing.

Read More

The Love Deficit

2011-07-23T10:03:00.001Z

David Cameron enjoys offering racing tips but if he wishes to enjoy a healthy night’s sleep he should stay away from the bookies.

One well-known high street player is offering odds of 5/1 that the Prime Minister will be the next MP to leave the Cabinet.

Yes, he is under extreme pressure over the discussions he may have had with News International about the future of BSkyB, and his relationship with former News of the World editor Andy Coulson is an albatross so heavy a less broad-shouldered PM might crumple.

But to suggest to people that there is just as great a chance that Mr Cameron will be ousted from Downing Street as there is that Baroness Warsi will be dropped from the Cabinet seems extraordinary, if not hysterical.

In contrast, Nick Clegg, who has had to face the humiliation of the lost AV vote is at 33/1.

The same bookmaker is offering odds of 2/1 that David Cameron will be replaced as Conservative leader before the next general election.

Such pessimism about his prospects will not cheer him up, but what might send a chill down his spine is the knowledge it would be his own party which drops any guillotine.

“Flip,” he might think. “Tony Blair survived the Eccleston affair, the mockery of the WI, fuel protests, fun in the sun with Berlusconi, the Iraq invasion, cash for honours, and his party didn’t push him off the stage for about three million years. What have I done wrong?”

The answer may be that many, many Labour activists loved what early-era Blair did to Labour while Conservatives do not look at the coalition and beam with such brilliant pride.

Blair took a party that for years was about as fashionable as earmuffs and positioned it at the heartbeat of the zeitgeist.

To be cool was to be at a party in Downing Street with the Prime Minister and a Britpop musician.

Yes, Blair jettisoned Clause Four and some socialist creeds, but this was done in the spirit of a rock star throwing a TV off a hotel balcony. He was a dude who won two landslides and nobody was about to stop the party.

But do the Tory faithful like the policy cocktails Mr Cameron and his Lib Dem friends serve up?

The social conservatism that defined past manifestos has been muted and there is sometimes a faint grumble that if hoodie-hugging did not win the last election, why should it work next time round?

Mr Cameron knows that elections are won in the centre ground, but he may need to remind the supposedly faithful of that fact.

A Thursday Column

A New Tradition

2011-07-14T00:01:00.000Z

It can be tremendous fun to take part in a tradition but it is even more exciting to start one.

The French will today celebrate Bastille Day, and it is possible that on March 3,2111 children will ride on hoverboards around the Senedd (by now one of the oldest buildings in Cardiff) to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the day Wales voted for full legislative competence in 20 strictly defined areas of responsibility.

Of course, it is conceivable that scientific breakthroughs will ensure key players in the referendum saga are still around on this date to regale the youngsters with the legend of the No campaign’s floating pig, but it is more likely that this particular trip to the ballot box will be outshone in the popular memory by far more dramatic events which will shape our self-identity.

Wales has grand moments of tragedy and glory in its past which define today’s political culture and episodes of just as great glory and cataclysm await.

Politicians, particularly on the left of the spectrum, still feel the reverberations of the Chartist Uprising, the Tonypandy Riots and the miners’ strikes.

Similarly, the memory of the Aberfan disaster informs every Welsh politician and may be one reason why public safety – whether in the promotion of the smoking ban or school bus standards – has been such a priority for the Assembly.

But just as ministers in the first years of the Assembly’s life didn’t expect to be tested by the foot and mouth outbreak and the worldwide adjustment to life after the September 2011 attacks, only the most foolhardy pundit would try and name the defining themes of the next decades with any swagger of certainty.

One of the most striking poems of recent times is For the Anniversary of My Death by MS Merwin. In it, he acknowledges that “without knowing it I have passed the day” on which, at some point in the future, he will leave behind this life.

It is chilling to think of the catastrophes which could test this country in the years ahead, but Wales also has the chance to create anniversaries worthy of the most ebullient celebrations and forge traditions that will energise and inspire.

Without knowing it, we may be passing the anniversary of the day when a Welsh person perfects the hydrogen fuel cell, harnesses nuclear fusion, negotiates peace in the Middle East or reintroduces the unicorn to Montgomeryshire.

The bruises of post-war industrial decline have created bastilles which need to be stormed but if today’s leaders can nurture a modern Welsh tradition as audacious as it is creative and generous then revolution awaits.

A Thursday column

In Search of a Happy Juncture

2011-07-07T00:01:00.001Z

In the moments after an election count, when the winning candidate is giddily bouncing on the balls of his or her feet, a look of chilly fear may sweep across their eyes.

It is possible they have remembered Enoch Powell’s adage that political lives “unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture end in failure”.

No political mammal wants to be remembered or (worse still) forgotten as a failure and being “cut off” does not sound very appealing.

Of the 60 Welsh AMs and 40 MPs, how many of them of them will suffer the ignominy of being ejected by their electors or eased out by a party irked that they have strayed onto the maverick side of an argument? Of those who do survive the periodic electoral culls, how many will reach an office of state which satisfies their ambition to bring a morsel of change to this wonky world?

MPs may be on the way to liberating circus animals, but politics remains a tiger-filled arena and how many will survive years of inter and inner-party battles with their idealism intact?

Britain has been able to provide ex-politicians with a soft landing thanks to the House of Lords but reforming zeal may remove this convenient and bouncy woolsack.

Politics does attract individuals of extraordinary self-belief who have a burning sense of vocation but is there a way to harness the talents of people who have brilliant skills and could make a fantastic contribution but do not want to devote the rest of their days to shouting from the green benches and stomping around Whitehall?

Former environment minister Jane Davidson had the idea of using some of the Assembly’s 20 regional list seats to bring in people with luminous talents so they could serve for a specific length of time without fighting a constituency. In a suction-packed 60-seat Assembly – where until recently one party leader himself had a top-up seat – this proposal was not going to catch fire.

However, it’s a notion whose time may come. Certainly, it was a glory of traditional Welsh rugby and golden era Olympics that the competitors had lives outside sport; the competition arguably glowed with more splendour when a jobbing engineer or doctor triumphed than when a professionally-tuned try-scoring machine achieves the same feat.

A political culture that welcomed the amateur might be a less cruel but more creative domain, and MPs who knew they had one term to make a difference might also enjoy a happier ending that would inspire others to compete for the chance to join the adventure of true public service.

A Thursday column

Westminster Sees Red and Plays the Blues

2011-06-30T00:01:00.002Z

Parliament escaped the 2009 expenses scandal without angry crowds torching Westminster but there is a sense politics remains broken.

UK Labour leader Ed Miliband was in Wales at the weekend with a message that his party had to change and open up to the public. He said that in the past big decisions had been taken by “less than six” people on “a sofa in Whitehall”.
Shadow Welsh Secretary Peter Hain has chaired a review of party structures and with unblinking clarity his consultation document describes how the party lost touch with millions of voters.

The Conservatives are also aware that radical change is needed if the party is ever going to win an outright majority – though members may disagree strongly as to whether the solution is a shift to the left or right.

Christopher Shale, a friend of the Prime Minister who died at the Glastonbury festival, had prepared a memo in which he warned there was “no reason to join” the party and “lots of reasons not to.”

In the immediate term, we are likely to see even greater concentration on the handful of hyper-marginal seats where Westminster elections can be won and lost. David Cameron and Ed Miliband may regret the disconnect that exists between their parties and the wider electorate but unless there is a coup – and Labour does not go in for ejecting leaders mid-term – it is all but certain one of these men will become Prime Minister.

Mr Miliband has yet to set the world alight but successive seasons of strikes, library closures, and disintegrating pavements may be enough to convince voters it is time for a change. While he lacks Mr Cameron’s visceral delight in the challenge of charming a room full of strangers, he has the rare ability among politicians to listen to questions and engage thoughtfully; several years spent touring WIs, colleges, local radio stations and the like may be enough to build a public rapport.

But in each of the two main parties there is a hunger for a connection with the “common good” and a purpose in politics which goes beyond election-winning. Both the so-called Red Tories and the followers of “Blue Labour” want to rekindle excitement about community – the notion that we want healthier and happier neighbourhoods and not just bigger TVs in burglar-proof living rooms.

A search for values and not just votes is underway, the like of which we have not seen for at least a generation. This transcends the left-right division and shows that while our politics may not yet be repaired, there is great cause for hope.

A Thursday column

The Castle of the Princess Who Loved Paris

2011-06-27T22:03:00.002Z

On the Streets of Paris

2011-06-23T00:01:00.004Z

Years ago, my great friend Ali and I went to Paris to visit a clarinet-playing biochemist and the city knocked me out. It's so very, very close to Britain, the land of the Aberdeen Steak House, but when you step foot in the French capital it is as if you are sucked into a fantastical film.

So, after yonks of talking about how splendid it would be to go back to this grand maze of cafes and balconies, we headed over with a couple of grand friends.

My brother spent a year living with Claire and Phillip and I often wondered what it was like to live in their book-filled home. Based on the experience of three nights in a Monmartre apartment, I reckon it was pretty good. Each morning I'd stumble down and find Phillip had filled the tables with the most extraordinary treasures from a bakery that would make an Argonaut marvel.

Paris is like a film set in which everyone with even a walk-on part is perfectly cast. But the set design, is fantastic, too.

Is it any wonder the French are so good at making films when they've been masters at projecting light for centuries? Notre Dame is a masterpiece of cinematography.

But if you want a true widescreen experience, head over to the Musée de l'Orangerie.

Many of Monet's greatest hits ended up in Cardiff thanks to the inspired purchases of a pair of wealthy sisters... but there's nothing to match the immersive experience of sitting in front of one of these.

You start off admiring the technical achievement of these giant works but suddenly you're lost in the deep hues and in the world of Monet's imagination. The building is a wonderful creation, too. Very Frank Lloyd Wright, and filled with Picassos downstairs and a few fantastic works by Henri Rousseau.

The great thing about travelling with energetic companions is that they compel you to race between wonders rather than lounging in a cafe imagining how much fun it must have been to be Camus (who was supposedly quite a fine goalkeeper).

We did manage to nip into a few between downpours.

This one, next to the Sorbonne, is opposite the philosopher's bookshop (I kid ye not!) and has a splendid waiter who likes to take take hold of your camera...

It's just around the corner from somewhere Proust would like to saunter.

But we'd bought these smashing museum cards which allow you to queue-jump so there wasn't time to hang around a try on berets. Not when St-Chapelle is there to be experienced.

These windows are amazing. They're so bright, it's as if you're perched on the branch of a Christmas tree that's draped in plutonium-powered lights.

When we left it was starting to rain again so we ducked into the complex next door where the 2,800 folk who were sent to the guillotine were locked up. It was fascinating to see a recreation of Marie Antoinette's quarters and the room were the Girondins feasted before their execution. But when I read that one of them tried to kill himself by plunging a stiletto into his heart I laboured under the misapprehension for quite a while until put right by Philip that this was an example of attempted suicide by shoe.

The Rodin Museum is a wonderful theme park. You can visit Disneyland Paris and be hugged by an anthropomorphic rodent (an experience I thoroughly enjoyed in younger years) and it's just as exciting to come face to face with the Thinker.

And the Gates of Hades is a terrifying tableau straight out of Danteland.

There's so much excitement about 3D cinema at the moment, but when you encounter Eve it's as if you're in the garden.

I'd been warned that a visit to the Mona Lisa is a horrendous experience. But while it was like being in a mosh-pit at the front of a concert it was quite exciting.

I was surprised the guards were quite happy for lunatic tourists to take flash photographs. But upstairs there wasn't such hysteria and the Louvre is an amazing building which pulls together spectacular architecture with vast open and airy spaces, a true airport of art.

The Pompidou Centre is also a gallery where the building is a sensation. Tantric chanting was amplified in the escalators running up the outside of the building which made the whole experience quite similar to what Jonah might have experienced in the digestive tracts of the whale. The stand-out work was Christ Among the Prisoners by a Spanish civil war artist.

But much of the finest art in this city is dotted along the bridges...

Or in the Palais du Jardin.

It's a grand place to escape the zooming traffic and the rather whiffy Metro.

It's also home to an amazing pair of creatures.

The orangutans were the most fantastic characters. Their curiosity, dexterity and strength contrasts with the sense of melancholy emanating from their cramped conditions.

And we spent our last hour in Paris in the Jardin du Luxembourg, where Parisian families race boats.

There wasn't much sunshine to soak up but the flowers in the thousands of elegant pots which line the perimeter of the palace are as bright as Neptune, Venus and Uranus on a good day.

And then it was time to scoot over to Gard du Nord, fly through a tunnel, and emerge a little dazed and very well exercised (but very well fed) at King's Cross. Great times. I can't wait to go back.

Cracks beneath the chandeliers

2011-06-23T00:01:00.001Z

Lancaster House was once one of the most spectacular stately homes in London and is now the place the Government takes visiting minister when it wants to dazzle them with imperial splendour.

Located right next to the Prince of Wales’s Clarence House crash-pad, it emanates an opulence so ostentatious even Liberace would have wondered if there was a little too much gold leaf on the ceilings.

It was here that the Prime Minister took Barack Obama for a very civilised press conference, and this week it was the setting for the latest meeting of the British-Irish Council.

When Wales hosted this event in 2009, Cardiff’s Swalec Stadium was the setting and Northern Ireland First Minister took delight in outing his Sinn Fein deputy Martin McGuinness as a cricket fan.

Two years ago, there was something astonishing about a former IRA hard-man and a DUP politician who had a reputation for militancy sharing not just a platform but a chuckle.

The council was a peace process creation. Ulster unionists who had anxieties about cross-border bodies linking Belfast and Dublin could look at the BIC and see the Republic of Ireland pulled into a UK-dominated group.

The expensive, sometimes ethically dubious and often downright surreal efforts at pacifying Ulster occupied thousands of hours of Government time but succeeded in winding down one of the longest running conflicts in the industrialised world.

In the years since BIC was established in 1999, leaders on both islands have done a remarkable job of taking the gun out of Irish politics. At least, until Tuesday night.

A photographer was shot and wounded during a second night of rioting in East Belfast. Last July there were fierce riots in the north of the city, and the province is still haunted by the killing in April of Catholic policeman Ronan Kerr.

The IRA are no longer plotting to bomb office blocks in Canary Wharf and the architects of the peace process can take pride that erstwhile icons of sectarian division now sit together beneath the glittering chandeliers.

But the time has come to ask what these men are delivering on their side of the bargain.

Northern Ireland took a delegation of 10 to the meeting compared to two from Wales, two from the Republic and three from Scotland. Is this gravy-train diplomacy still a force for peace, or are tribal chieftains prospering while the seeds for future conflict take root?

Before they are again invited to the setting for presidential garden parties it is imperative that these men who once did so much to stoke violent hatred act to quell the lethal passions in their own backyard.

A Thursday column

On the Ups in the Downs

2011-06-21T21:27:00.003Z

The late and very great Douglas Adams once said something along lines of "Nobody has ever said someone was as beautiful as an airport." (The memory that's been jogged dates back at least half my life so I'm sure someone can put me right.) Quite a few people might blush with pleasure if told they were as beautiful as Venice or Paris but telling a beloved that they remind you of London would neither start an evening well nor end a night on a high note. But this city has a beauty which is real and vital; on a sunny morning you can sense eight million people waking up. When you walk to work you can smell the flowers in their gardens which, like you, are arching into the sunlight. London is lived in and living. It has a heart that beats and a fine soul.

But like a great companion whose company burns so bright you need to escape periodically to stop your eyebrows burning, once in a while you must duck out of town. I made it to Hay-on-Wye for the book festival a few weeks ago and Melvyn Bragg preached the best sermon I've heard all year on the legacy of the KJV. A heck of a warm guy. And eating lunch on a rock on the Wye was a supreme pleasure.

Growing up, I heard English people talk about going for a walk "on the downs" and wondered what this involved. Now I know. Just a short way south of London are rolling meadows which are pretty enchanting.

The fresh air is so rich in oxygen that it knocks you out as if Morpheus had dropped a piano on your head. But the opportunity to use some long-rang vision and look out on a skyline unclutterd by anything but sky is rather wonderful. A day like this gives you the appetite to dive back into the smoke.

A Boris-shaped Future

2011-06-16T00:01:00.001Z

Boris Johnson’s suggestion that water from the hills and mountains of Wales and Scotland could be engineered to flow to drought-prone regions of England has already made a splash.

The modern Welsh nationalist movement was galvanised by the flooding of Capel Celyn in the Tryweryn Valley to provide water for Liverpool. On YouTube, you can watch the ghostly underwater images of the flooded village.

This latest visionary outpouring from London’s Mayor may well have prompted the Prime Minister to mutter: “There he goes again...”

It was unthinkable that a polymathic pontificator such as Boris would constrain his public utterances to strictly “devolved” subjects. There is only so much that a man who can sing in Greek in the shower could say about bikes, Routemaster buses and union regulations for Tube operators before being overcome by the urge to play with the office fire extinguisher.

Boris has a beady-eyed readiness to comment on issues beyond his immediate responsibilities and it is likely this willingness to step on the toes of Westminster will spread as devolution matures.

If he spies a water shortage on his doorstep and comes up with a pan-UK solution he is not going to censor himself. First ministers in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales are increasingly aware of how UK Government spending on projects such as the Olympics and defence affect their budgets, and they know that the closure of a passport office or a shift in benefits policy will crank up pressure on local government social services.

SNP leader Alex Salmond’s push for a referendum on independence poses the true possibility of an imminent break-up of the United Kingdom – something which until recently would have been the definition of a Westminster issue.

The UK has become a multipolar country, with first ministers bargaining with Whitehall mandarins and seeking to out-flank cabinet ministers. But this does not mean the UK’s future will be defined by nationalist separatism.

Just as it is (almost) unthinkable that Boris will advocate the secession of London and the founding of an Athenian-style city state, US governors who attack Washington DC as a modern Carthage, the source of vice and moral decay, are considered defenders and reformers and not dismantlers of the union. Without a shred of irony, state politicians who aspire to be president condemn those who dwell in the capital as dilettante tax-spenders.

This creative tension is held up as proof of the vibrancy of American democracy. So if first ministers take on the PM with gusto in the months and years ahead it does not mean that Britain is splintering; rather, this beast is in the throes of evolution.

A Thursday column

Restless Days

2011-06-09T00:01:00.002Z

Politicians are aspiring polymaths born with a low boredom threshold.

They like the idea of appearing on Any Questions and being quizzed on issues ranging from the latest Peruvian banana crisis to whether it’s appropriate for Lady Gaga to dress as a camouflaged ostrich.

If they were just policy wonks they could enjoy a happy life in academia, think tanks or the civil service; if they were only social crusaders, they could join a charity or pressure group; if they were merely in love with the limelight they would have auditioned for the RSC.

But the political animal wants to be tested daily and to live out a drama on a public stage. David Cameron did not leave a lucrative life in television-land and head back to Westminster where he had once been a youthful researcher because he wanted a quiet life.

From 2008 onwards, it was clear that if he won power he would be not be a chequebook-PM, dishing out cash for pleasure-domes during a time of plenty. He would have to lead the country during radically straightened times.

But it is unlikely when he stepped into Downing St having sealed a historic deal with the Liberal Democrats that he thought he might be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Yet when he chaired yesterday’s gathering of first ministers from across the UK such a possibility would not have seemed ridiculous.

The implications of an SNP majority government in Scotland intent on staging a referendum on independence grow starker by the day.

With a little help from the likes of former Labour Home Secretary John Reid he killed off any chance of electoral reform in this year’s AV referendum. The battle to knock independence on the head will excite much deeper, more fiery passions; he will be determined not to go down in history as a PM who failed to win a majority and then failed to save the union from this existential threat to its existence.

Mr Cameron will also come under pressure from international counterparts to thwart Alex Salmond’s ambitions. Spain will not want the UK to set a precedent for the secession of the Basque region and Catalonia; nor will France want to wave goodbye to Corsica in a springtime for EU nationalism; and Quebec nationalists would draw the conclusion that if Scotland can make a bid for Braveheart-style freedom in the 21st century, why should the unity of Canada be sacred?

Despite such epic challenges and a growing number of policy headaches in England, Mr Cameron seems oddly at ease in his prime ministerial predicament. It is the life he wanted.

A Thursday column

The i-Word

2011-06-02T00:01:00.002Z

The first ministers of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland gathered in Edinburgh this week to call on the UK Government to support their “progress agenda” – but where is it progressing?

Their joint statement called for “financial, constitutional and policy reform” but the countdown for a referendum on Scottish independence is ticking loudly.

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond is still aglow with electoral glory after he led the SNP to a historic majority in last month’s elections. Not for him piddling coalitions or trifling stability pacts; like a vintage-era Maradona he has the proven ability to set a goal and score.

Northern Ireland effectively has two first ministers, and nominal deputy Martin McGuinness likes the word “independence” very much. Sinn Fein strategists are undoubtedly envisaging with glee how the Scottish debate on independence – never mind a Yes vote – will encourage people to consider a future for these islands in which the UK no longer exists.

Last month’s Ipsos Mori research found just 36% of UK respondents think Scotland will never be independent.

Meanwhile, the UK Government is committed to reducing the number of Welsh MPs by a quarter and will shortly launch a commission on whether they should be able to vote on English-only matters; as the Treasury-imposed cuts bite, we can expect the Welsh Government to fight harder for major changes to the funding formula used to allocate it cash.

These tensions mean that when David Cameron sits down with the heads of government of the UK nations at the forthcoming joint-ministerial committee he will be in danger of looking like the First Minister of England rather than the PM of a contented UK. In little more than a decade, devolution has put the leaders of pro-secession parties into power and pressed a giant question mark across the UK.

The leaders of Labour and Plaid Cymru face a headache at this time. Talk about independence will only intensify in the next couple of years and increasing vocal English voices may also argue the union is an expensive hangover from days of empire. The issue is not going to go away.

Will Carwyn Jones give his beleaguered Scottish Labour colleagues a crash course in how to win elections and beat nationalists and thus become the de facto Celtic poster boy for left-leaning unionism? And will Plaid Cymru – which launched an “independence initiative” in 2009 but subsequently muffled use of the i-word – decide that ambiguity and equivocation are unlikely to win at the polls and instead embrace with gusto the agenda of their Scottish compatriots?

This is a debate Wales cannot sit out.

A Thursday column

Thank Guinness for International Diplomacy

2011-05-26T00:01:00.001Z

Barack Obama seemed happy with the pint of Guinness he received when he visited an ancestral Irish hometown this week.

Days earlier, the Queen had enjoyed watching the pouring of a Guinness during her truly historic visit to Ireland. In Germany she might have observed the wheels being put on a shiny new Volkswagen, but an international statesperson cannot tour the Republic without paying homage to the pint-sized wonder.

There is a body of thought that this quintessentially Irish brew is in truth a Welsh invention. The story goes that Arthur Price, who left Cardiganshire in the 18th century for Ireland and became Archbishop of Cashel, served up the black stuff at his palace.

His steward, Richard Guinness, was well-known for brewing a “very palatable” drink and he enjoyed such a fine relationship with his employer that he named his son Arthur in his honour.

The Archbishop became Arthur Guinness’s godfather and left the young man £100 which he used to open his first brewery in 1756.

While it may be stretching this tale too far to say that the tipple of monarchs and presidents is actually the ancient Welsh “porter”, as a tale of hospitality and friendship it is as warming as a pub fire.

David Cameron is a regular Guinness drinker and he may have discussed the art of pulling a perfect pint with the visiting president. He has certainly worked hard at pulling Mr Obama close.

They now say they have an “essential relationship” founded on a “natural partnership.”

This fermenting of their friendship accelerated last year when the two men swapped beers. Mr Obama gave the PM a bottle of Goose Island 312 – an icon of his home city of Chicago. The president received a bottle of Hobgoblin, brewed in Mr Cameron’s Oxfordshire constituency.

Tony Blair brought George Bush back to a favourite Sedgefield pub and Boris Yeltsin was enthralled by the one he visited with John Major.

Mortals may wonder how real camaraderie can survive such flashbulb-filled encounters but investing intergovernmental time in having a good time is rarely wasteful. Just as manuals urge harassed parents of young children to ensure they have a “date night” weekly when they can enjoy each other’s company, so world leaders stand a better chance of devising solutions to climate change, global debt and nuclear proliferation in the airless confines of a summit if they can drawer on reserves of rapport and trust forged through evenings of yarn-spinning.

For the good of Europe and America, let’s hope the occupants of Downing St and the White House found time to unwind over an ale fit for an archbishop.

A Thursday column

The Road Not Taken

2011-05-19T00:01:00.001Z

Former Plaid Cymru ministers now adapting to life in opposition must wonder how different their world might be if they had taken a different turning in the road four short years ago.

Together with the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, they thrashed out a programme for government and party leader Ieuan Wyn Jones seemed on the verge of not just taking Plaid into government for the first time but doing so as First Minister.

But when deep divisions in the Lib Dems were dramatically exposed – and Labour’s Rhodri Morgan was installed as the leader of a minority government – the allure of a “rainbow coalition” faded. Instead, the left-leaning nationalists negotiated the One Wales coalition pact with Labour and Plaid’s ministerial team embraced their new roles with energy and optimism.

Party conferences over the subsequent years were not characterised by soul-searching or public frustration with Labour. Instead, there was keen excitement at the prospect of a referendum on full law-making powers in devolved areas for the Assembly.

Plaid forged a government with Labour because the party led Mr Morgan promised stability and pledged to deliver this historic vote.

Labour was true to their word and the Assembly now has turbo-charged powers. But the irony is that Plaid is on the electoral sidelines and Labour ministers are the only AMs with access to these shiny new levers of power.

There is, of course, the possibility that Labour will seek a stability pact or even a full coalition at some point in the five-year term. But this is only the smallest crumb of comfort.

The contrast with Scotland is glaring. The SNP’s Alex Salmond led a minority Government and this month the electorate handed him a thumping majority; Plaid, meanwhile, have slipped behind the Tories in their share of seats.

It is true four years of Plaid-led government would have transformed Wales’ perception of the party but there is no guarantee it would have achieved its greater goal and won the march 3 referendum with a resounding 63.49% of the vote.

Even if the three-way coalition had held together, would popular support more powers have cemented? Opposition in Labour ranks to devolution would have intensified every time First Minister Jones appeared on television; the Welsh Labour leadership battle would have been about who could best thrash Plaid.

Labour is today adamant that the referendum would not have been won without its efforts; similarly, this month’s election proves that the party now led by Carwyn Jones has not suffered through its association with Plaid.

A rainbow coalition would have made history but One Wales quietly achieved wholescale climate change.

A Thursday column

The Woods are Lovely, Dark and Deep

2011-05-17T10:03:00.000Z

A Party of Government or a Party of Change?

2011-05-12T00:01:00.002Z

There is a grand irony that Westminster – that bastion of first past the post – this week marks the first anniversary of a coalition while one-party rule is under way in Wales and Scotland.

The electoral systems for the Assembly and the Scottish Parliament were expected to make these outcomes more unlikely but the SNP last week won a majority which justifies the use of the term “whopping”.

In Wales, Labour did well to win half of the seats in the Assembly but there are political reasons why the party decided to launch this experiment in solo-government.

Historians will scratch their heads when they look at Plaid’s strategy before, during and after the election. Successive polls showed the party ranking behind the Conservatives so the result cannot have come as a surprise.

Even though three of their top five winnable seats were held by Conservatives they chose to direct extraordinary firepower at Labour. This is despite having shared power with Mr Jones’ party since 2007 and together delivering a Yes vote in the March Assembly referendum that was (a) historic and (b) also verifiably whopping.

Plaid could have adopted a version of the 2001 UK Labour slogan, “The work goes on”, and used the election campaign to promote the idea of another coalition which would address endemic poverty and under-performance – but this time with a new toolkit of powers.

In the immediate aftermath of the election the party could have forcefully made the case that no group had won a majority, that 57.7% of constituency votes had been for parties other than Labour and that Wales needs a strong government when the nation is braced for the full force of the spending cuts.

Instead, Plaid seems poised for long nights of debate and soul-searching about its raison d’etre. The idea that renewal is found in opposition is dubious. Were the Conservative eras under William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard times of unbridled renaissance?

The appearance is of a party that has not only lost power but does not regard winning power as its over- riding purpose. Does Plaid exist to win office and make decisions about road expenditure, prescriptions policy and fisheries, or is its success to be judged by its wider impact?

Without hesitation, politicians from all parties now champion bilingualism, talk about the Welsh people as a nation and seek to tailor bespoke made-in-Wales solutions to policy problems. It is a sign of Plaid’s success at shaping the political landscape that other parties’ tanks are parked on their lawns. But the party is in no mood to celebrate and tough days are ahead.

A Thursday column

The Music of Democracy

2011-05-05T00:01:00.001Z

Choosing the right music is one of the most important elements in staging a party. It will be the soundtrack of the night which will set the tempo for conversation and associated larks.

The music which has pumped through the Assembly since 1999 has been a bolero piece which reached a climax in March when the electorate voted by a thumping majority to invest the institution with bold new powers in devolved areas.

If Devolution: The Ballet is ever staged at the Wales Millennium Centre it will be the story of how a little-loved Assembly survived a shaky start, a spat of scandals, and yet was eventually grasped close by a nation which understood its potential to change life for the better.

But few things grab the attention of people at a party so much as the moment when the music suddenly stops.

The newly elected Assembly Members who arrive in Cardiff will have to decide on a new soundtrack.

What is the grand narrative of the next Assembly going to be? The idea of a referendum slowly won support in all parties over the last four years and members campaigned with remarkable discipline towards this goal.

But what – if anything – will be the ambition which can unite AMs of different stripes in the half-decade which lies ahead?

People of different parties support reform of the way the Assembly is funded and many will make a strong case for the creation of a separate Welsh legal jurisdiction. Important though these individual issues may be, they are unlikely to animate either the nation or its politicians with a new sense of purpose.

But AMs may be inspired to focus on one area where there is a real need for change and where success will deliver quantifiable results.

The sobering scale of the under-performance of Welsh children in reading, maths and science was demonstrated in December’s Pisa results. Not only did Wales rank behind the other UK nations, it was below international competitors such as China and South Korea.

The ambition for Wales to be a small but clever country is a great one but turning it into reality will require the bravest of leadership.

In identifying what holds back our children in school, it is likely we will also discover what holds them back in life, what dilutes their confidence, their ambition, their happiness.

This extra-long five-year Assembly term lessens the pressure to scramble for a quick-fix solution in time for the next election. This is an epic mission which deserves an Ennio Morricone soundtrack that, we hope, will culminate in the sounds of celebration.

A Thursday column